000 AXNT20 KNHC 251801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 31W from 11N southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. A TPW maximum is noted just behind the wave axis. Model guidance also supports this position. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 27W-31W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 17N43W to 08N43W, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave limiting convection. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in TPW imagery. Also, the wave diagnostic and the Santo Domingo 12Z sounding suggest the passage of this wave over the area. Isolated showers remain inland near the coast of Venezuela and the ABC Islands. A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis along 80W from 16N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the SW Caribbean south of 14N between 79W-83W, and along and near the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N16W to 06N32W. The ITCZ begins near 06N32W and continues to the coast of South America near 06N57W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level diffluence across the southwest Gulf coast supports scattered moderate strong convection along the Mexico/Texas coast extending from 20N to 29N out into the Gulf to 200 nm. A 1018 mb surface high near 26N83W maintains fair weather across the central and eastern Gulf. Mid-level riding also prevails over the eastern Gulf. Light and gentle southeast winds continues across the east half of the Gulf and moderate to fresh across the western half. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. The northwest Caribbean still contains relatively dry air. Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered moderate convection is seen over NW Colombia, as well as the waters north of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Light to gentle easterly trades are seen across the northwest Caribbean and moderate to fresh east across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low is producing generally moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic. This will support strong breezes north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and southwest basin through the weekend. Strong to near gale force winds are expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters Tue night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas extends from 30N70W to 24N75W. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W to 26N58W. A pre-frontal trough is from 30N45W to 24N51W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 24N between 44W- 56W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the area near 32N12W to 26N17W. No significant convection accompanies the front. A trough northeast of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area through Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night through Sat and tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the Bahamas, across the Old Bahama Channel, and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres