000 AXNT20 KNHC 250540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 30/31W from 11N southward, moving W at around 15-20 kt. A TPW maximum is just behind the wave axis. Model guidance supports this position. Scattered showers are noted along and E of the wave axis where it intersects the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is added to the analysis with axis from 17N40W to 09N37W, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave. The weak tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 45W at 24/1800 UTC has been removed from the analysis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 07N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in the TPW imagery. Scattered thunderstorms are seen near and over the Virgin Islands. Isolated showers are elsewhere along and within 120 nm ahead of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis analyzed along 77/78W from 05N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is confined mainly to inland areas over northern Colombia and E Panama, with isolated showers near the wave axis south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W and continues to 10N21W to 06N26W to 05N32W. The ITCZ begins near 05N32W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N59W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb surface high near 26N84W is bringing quiet weather to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level riding also prevails over the eastern Gulf. Southerly winds to the west of the high are ushering in moist tropical air to the west-central Gulf and southern Texas. As a result, widespread moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring over NE Mexico, south Texas and the west central Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of a line from 29N93W to 25N93W to 20N96W. Rain and thunderstorms are particularly heavy just west of Brownsville Texas, where a Flash Flood Emergency is in effect. A cluster of tstorms are also seen in the southern Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle winds through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. Relatively dry air covers the area north of 15N and west of Haiti. As a result of the dry air and relatively weak winds, some high temperatures were tied or broken on Monday afternoon across western Cuba and South Florida. In Cuba, 21 weather stations recorded a high temperature of 95 or higher. The hottest temperature of 99.3 was reported by Paso Real de San Diego in Pinar del Rio province. This could be an all-time record for Cuba for the month of June. Previously, Cuba's June record temperature was 98.6 on June 11, 1951, according to the Cuban Meteorological Service. Despite the dry air, scattered showers and tstorms are currently seen near the south coast of eastern Cuba. Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered moderate convection is seen over NW Venezuela, with scattered showers in the south- central Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen in the western Caribbean along and within 150 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras, with fresh trades in the central Caribbean, and moderate winds elsewhere. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and southwest basin through the weekend. Near gale force winds are expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters Tue night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from a triple point near 32N73W to 29N74W. A warm front extends SE from the triple point to 29N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen E of the northwest Bahamas and S of the cold front from 25N-28N between 71W-76W. A cold front enters the area near 32N50W to 28N54W to 27N59W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N48W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate showers are seen ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 24N between 44W-54W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N15W to 28N17W to 24N24W. No significant convection accompanies the front. A frontal boundary across the waters north of 28N should dissipate by Tue. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high is weak and will produce light to gentle variable winds in the area through Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night through Sat and tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the Bahamas, across the Great Bahama Bank and in the approach to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen