000 AXNT20 KNHC 242329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 729 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 29W from 01N-11N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the vicinity of the wave axis. Model guidance and TPW imagery support this position. At this time, scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N. A weak tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic, with its axis analyzed along 45W from 01N-11W, moving W at around 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 64W from 10N-20N, moving W around 10-15 kt. This feature is apparent in the TPW imagery and in a recent ASCAT dataset, where a wind shift is noted between 60W-65W. Scattered showers are already developing in the wave's environment affecting the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis analyzed along 76W from 06N-17N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland areas over northern Colombia and Panama mainly south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W and continues 08N21W to 06N34W. The ITCZ begins near 06N34W and continues to 05N44W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N47W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted within the monsoon trough mainly east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level trough stretches from the Great Lakes Region southward suppressing the upper ridge across the basin. Upper level diffluence associated with this pattern supports for a line of convection along the northern Gulf. A squall line enters the Gulf and extends from 29N92W to 29N95W. This squall line will continue to move southward through tonight while weakening. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin. No significant convection is occurring across the central and southern portion of the Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across the western half of the Gulf. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through mod-week as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure ridge near the U.S. Gulf coast will contribute toward generally quiescent winds over the Gulf for the next several days. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Abundant dry air is noted north of 11N and west of Haiti with a mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical moisture continues to progress from northern South America to the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge. Scattered showers are noted over the eastern half of the basin mainly east of 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades are in the south-central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will continue producing generally moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds will reach the strong category north of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen by mid-week, increasing winds across the region through Fri night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A cold front enters the Atlantic waters near 31N52W and stretches westward to 28N60W. The front stalls from that point to 31N71W, then transitions into a warm front north of 31N. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough. To the east, another cold front west of the Canary Islands enters the Atlantic waters near 31N16W and stretches southwest to 25N28W. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A 1023 mb high pressure is near 33N38W and is ridging prevails across the rest of the basin. The frontal boundary in the west Atlantic should dissipate by mid-week. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high is weak and producing quiescent winds in the area through Wed. As the Bermuda high strengthens by the end of the week, the tradewinds will be enhanced, especially north of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA