000 AXNT20 KNHC 241800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with an axis near 27W S of 11N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with an axis near 43W S of 10N moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is located along the Lesser Antilles with an axis near 61W S of 17N moving W around 10-15 kt. The feature is apparent in the TPW and in the recent ASCAT with a wind shift. Also, recent ASCAT data supports the winds shift reflection at the surface. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 74W S of 16N moving W around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland areas over northern coast of Colombia with scattered showers elsewhere from 14N-16N and extends northeast across the Mona Passage into Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coast Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N31W. The ITCZ begins near 05N31W and continues to 06N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N44W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the monsoon trough from 04N-08N between 10W-17W in addition to an area from 05N-06N between 30W-32W. Showers are also seen near the ITCZ from 05N-07N between 50W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level trough streches from the Great Lakes Region southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico suppresing the upper ridge across the basin southward. Upper level diffluence associated with this pattern supports for a line of convection along the northern Gulf coast. A squall line enters the Gulf and extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to northeast Texas near 28N95W with strong thunderstorms producing frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. This squall line will continue to press southward today. Ridging dominates most of the central and southern Gulf with high pressure remaining in control. No significant convection is occuring across the central and southern portion of the basin Winds under the ridge are light to gentle across the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh across the western half of the Gulf. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge near the U.S. Gulf coast will contribute toward generally quiescent winds over the Gulf for the next several days. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave moving across the basin. Abundant dry air is noted N of 11N and W of Haiti with a mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical moisture continues to progress from northern South America to the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge. Isolated showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean E of 74W with thunderstorms near the vicinity of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are in the south-central basin while also pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are seen in the eastern and northern basin. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low is producing generally moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic. Winds reach to strong breeze north of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the region through Fri night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A cold front enters the waters near 31N51W and stretches westward to 28N65W. The boundary stalls from 28N65W to 29N69W and lifts north as a warm front from 29N69W to 31N72W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from 29N52W to 26N62W. Thunderstorms are seen along these boundaries from 24N-28N between 51W-61W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen over the northern Bahamas from 26N-31N between 71W-79W. Moderate west to southwesterly winds are seen west of the boundaries. Another cold front west of the Canary Islands enters the waters near 31N17W and stretches southwest to 25N25W, then stalls from 25N25W to 29N31W. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A 1024 mb high pressure is near 32N36W and is ridging across the rest of the domain. A frontal boundary across the waters north of 28N should dissipate by Wed. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high is weak and producing quiescent winds in the area through Wed. As the Bermuda high strengthens Thu and Fri, the tradewinds will be enhanced, especially north of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres