000 AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with its axis near 21W S of 14N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave extending from 07N-10N between 21W-22W. A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with axis near 42W S of 10N moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 66W S of 18N moving W around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland areas over Venezuela with scattered showers elsewhere near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N30W. The ITCZ begins near 05N30W and continues to 06N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N44W to near the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted from 03N- 07N between 24W-30W, from 04N-09N between 44W- 48W, and also from 06N- 08N between 43W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 08W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1019 mb high pressure near 27N84W in the eastern Gulf. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. Winds under the ridging are light to moderate across the eastern half of the Gulf, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh east- southeasterly winds are across the western half of the Gulf, along with 4-7 ft seas. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave moving across the basin. Very dry air is noted N of 11N and W of Haiti with a mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical moisture is progressing to the N-NE from northern South America to across the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge. Isolated showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean E of 75W. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia has relaxed slightly to allow for winds to diminish below gale force, with strong to near gale force winds in the S central waters now. Seas of 8-13 ft are also in the S central waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the basin, along with 3-5 ft seas. Strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean will diminish by Monday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail thereafter, increasing once again to near gale force on Wednesday night and continuing through Friday. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A cold front enters the waters near 31N58W and stretches westward to 28N75W, where the front stalls from that point to 31N77W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from 31N56W to 25N67W, and a post- frontal trough near 31N61W to 29N71W. Numerous thunderstorms are seen along the front and pre-frontal trough from 26N-31N between 55W-63W. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are seen near these features from 26N-28N between 64W-74W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are seen ahead of the front. There are also two cold fronts in the eastern Atlantic, the first enters the waters near 31N21W to 29N31W. The second cold front, which is weakening, is seen from 31N15W to 25N21W. A 1025 mb high is seen near 31N31W and is ridging across the rest of the domain. High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will weaken Mon as weak low pressure moves off the SE U.S. This system will clip the north-central waters Monday evening into Tuesday while dissipating. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR