000 AXNT20 KNHC 232232 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with its axis near 20W S of 14N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the wave extending from 06N-09N between 20W-24W. A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with axis near 41W S of 11N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted between 60-120 nm on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 65W S of 18N moving W around 15-20 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland areas over Venezuela with scattered showers elsewhere near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N21W to 06N31W. The ITCZ begins near 06N31W to 07N39W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N43W to near the coast of Suriname/French Guiana near 06N54W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-08N between 24W-28W, from 05N-07N between 44W- 48W, and also from 06N-08N between 52W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1019 mb high pressure over the Florida Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. Winds under the ridging are light to moderate across the eastern half of the Gulf, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh winds are across the western half of the Gulf, along with 4-7 ft seas. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave moving across the basin. Very dry air is noted N of 11N and W of Haiti with a mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical moisture is progressing to the N-NE from northern South America to across the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge. Isolated late afternoon/early evening convection has developed over inland areas, which should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia has relaxed slightly to allow for winds to diminish below gale force, with strong to near gale force winds in the S central waters now. Seas of 8-13 ft are also in the S central waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the basin, along with 3-5 ft seas. The strong to near gale winds over the S central Caribbean will diminish early this week, then will once again increase to near gale force by mid-week. The fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras are expected to continue through tonight, then again on Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Three features, a cold front and two troughs, are noted across the waters N of 27N and W of 55W, to the E of a mid to upper level trough. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the surface features. Mainly light and variable winds prevail across the SW N Atlantic, except moderate to locally fresh N of 25N and E of the surface features, as well as just offshore of the N coast of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, seas are 3 ft or less W of 75W, and 4-6 ft E of 75W. An upper level low is noted near 31N44W with a trough extending southward along roughly 43W. Otherwise, mainly upper level ridging and subsidence dominates the remainder of the basin. High pressure of 1023 mb is located to the E near 28N39W, with ridging extending from the high WSW to near the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. In the far eastern Atlantic, a dissipating cold front is moving across the Canary Islands from 32N15W to 26N22W, with a reinforcing cold front to the NW from 32N22W to 30N28W. No significant convection is noted with these boundaries. The frontal boundaries and troughs will all gradually weaken and dissipate through mid-week, while a weak pressure pattern prevails. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Lewitsky