000 AXNT20 KNHC 231756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low continues to support gale force winds this morning. The gale warning has been extended through the morning hours as condition persists. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the NHC website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa with its axis near 19W, south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the wave extending from 04N-14N between 15W-23W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are observed near the coast Guinea between 22W-25W. A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 40W and south of 09N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted between 60 to 80 nm on either side of the wave. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean near 63W south of 16N, moving west around 10-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from the U.S Virgin Islands to the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to 05N30W. The ITCZ begins near 05N30W then continues to 06N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N42W and stretches to the Brazilian coast near 05N54W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 40W, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N-08N between 21W-25W and near the ITCZ from 04N-07N between 42W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1020 mb high pressure near 27N83W. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. Winds under the high are light and variable in the eastern Gulf. In the central Gulf, winds are mostly moderate to fresh out of the southeast with fresh to strong southeasterly winds in the western basin. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Thu as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin, significant convection is limited in development across most of the basin. Scattered showers are seen across the eastern Caribbean from W of 74W to the Lesser Antilles near the tropical wave. There is scattered moderate convection seen near Panama and Costa Rica due to the Pacific monsoon trough. Trade winds in the central Caribbean are fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean. Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level ridge dominating the area, the Greater Antilles are experiencing very warm conditions today. Veguitas, Granma in Cuba recorded a high temperature of 99.8 degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28 stations across Cuba that reported maximum temperatures of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, with 10 of these stations recording near 97 degrees. Strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean will diminish early this week. Winds will once again increase to near gale force midweek. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to strong convection continues across the northern portions of the western and central Atlantic. Convection over the U.S. moved over the mid-level ridge into the S.E. U.S. where it entered the Atlantic waters as upper-level divergence aids in continuing this convection. A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters from 31N54W to 28N72W and curves northwest to 30N77W. A line of thunderstorms are seen ahead of the boundary, noted from 26N-29N between 61W-71W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are seen near this area. In the central Atlantic, another line of thunderstorms, not as robust as the aforementioned area of convection, is seen along the pre-frontal trough. The pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N56W to 27N64W with the convection observed from 27N-31N between 50W-60W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure near 27N38W ridging across the area. In the eastern Atlantic, another cold front enters the waters to the west of the Canary Islands near 31N16W and stretches southward to 26N22W. No convection is associated with this boundary. High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually weaken early this week as a weak low pressure moves off the SE of United States. This system will clip the north-central waters Mon evening into Tue while dissipating. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres