000 AXNT20 KNHC 231048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support gale force winds through early this morning. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 37W south of 10N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near this feature from 06N-08N within 60 nm of the axis. A tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles in the central Atlantic with axis near 61W south of 16N, moving west around 10-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from 12N-14N between 59W-63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is located north of Costa Rica with an axis near 83W south of 14N, moving west around 10-15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N31W. The ITCZ begins near 04N31W then continues to 04N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N38W and stretches to the Brazilian coast near 04N51W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 37W, scattered moderate convection is noted along and near the monsoon trough from 05N- 10N between 11W-24W. Scattered showers are near the ITCZ from 04N-08N between 42W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1020 mb high pressure near 28N84W. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time, with the exception of a small area of thunderstorms moving off the Mexican coast near 23N98W. Winds under the high are light and variable in the eastern Gulf. In the central Gulf, winds are mostly moderate to fresh out of the southeast with fresh to strong southeasterly winds in the western basin. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin, significant convection is limited in development across most of the basin. There is scattered moderate convection seen in the SW Caribbean due to the monsoon trough off the coast of Panama, S of 10N between 80W-83W. Trade winds in the central Caribbean are fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean. Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level ridge dominating the area, Cuba experienced very warm conditions on Saturday. Veguitas, Granma recorded a high temperature of 99.8 degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28 stations across Cuba that reported maximum temperatures of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, with 10 of these stations recording near 97 degrees. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through early this morning. Then, strong winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to strong convection continues across the northern portions of the western and central Atlantic. Convection over the U.S. moved over the mid-level ridge into the S.E. U.S. where it entered the Atlantic waters as upper-level divergence aids in continuing this convection. The first cluster of thunderstorms is seen 200 nm off the Florida coast, from 28N-31N between 76W-79W. Then, a cold front enters the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to 31N75W. A line of thunderstorms are along this boundary, noted from 28N-31N between 64W-74W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are seen near this area. In the central Atlantic, another line of thunderstorms, albeit not as robust as the aforementioned area of convection, is seen along the pre- frontal trough. The pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N56W to 27N65W with the convection observed from 28N- 31N between 54W-62W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure near 28N42W ridging across the area. In the south-central Atlantic, there is an area of scattered moderate convection from 13N-17N between 52W-58W. Another cold front enters the waters to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 31N18W and stretches southward to 27N23W. No convection is associated with this boundary. High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually weaken early this week as a weak low pressure moves off the SE of United States. This system will clip the north-central waters Monday evening into Tuesday while dissipating. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR