000 AXNT20 KNHC 230547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support gale force winds beginning late tonight and through Sunday morning. Seas of 12-14 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 36W south of 12N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near this feature from 05N-08N within 60 nm of the axis. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles in the central Atlantic with axis near 60W south of 17N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from 12N-16N between 54W-61W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is located north of Costa Rica with an axis near 83W south of 16N, moving west around 10-15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 14N17W to 06N32W. The ITCZ begins near 05N38W then continues to 05N47W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 32W, scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 08N-11N between 12W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1022 mb high pressure near 28N87W. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. Winds under the high are light and variable in the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh out of the southeast. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin, significant convection is limited in development across most of the basin. There is scattered moderate convection seen in the SW Caribbean due to the monsoon trough off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 10N between 78W-83W. Trade winds in the central Caribbean are fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean. Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level ridge dominating the area, Cuba experienced very warm conditions today. Veguitas, Granma recorded a high temperature of 99.8 degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28 stations across Cuba that reported maximum temperatures of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, with 10 of these stations recording near 97 degrees. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through early Sunday morning. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Convection over the U.S. continues to ride over the mid-level ridge into the SE U.S. and over the western Atlantic waters. Convection is noted just off the Jacksonville, Florida coast, N of 30N and W of 81W. Convection is also observed moving southeastward in the western Atlantic from 30N- 31N between 75W- 78W with frequent lightning. Another line of thunderstorms has pressed farther east in this area of the basin, from 30N-32N between 68W- 72W. Finally, in the central Atlantic, a pre-frontal trough, analyzed from 3950W to 29N62W, is providing focus for a line of thunderstorms from 29N- 33N between 53W-60W. A dying cold front enters the water near 31N61W and stretches west of 28N71W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are seen from 28N-30N between 51W-60W. Otherwise, a 1025 mb high near 27N42W dominates the rest of the basin. High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually weaken through early next week as the tail of a weak cold front moves across the northern waters. A low pressure will move into the north-central waters on Monday evening and meander in the region through Wednesday when it will weaken into a surface trough. The surface trough will drift NW across the Bahamas through Thursday evening before dissipating. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR