000 AXNT20 KNHC 230005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low are supporting peak winds just northwest of the Colombia coast of near gale, as observed by the ASCAT scatterometer. These will increase to gale force winds beginning late tonight and through mid-Sunday morning. An altimeter pass earlier today indicated a large area of 8 ft seas, extending from Jamaica to Costa Rica with peak around 12 ft. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean on Sunday before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 32W south of 10N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near this feature from 05N-08N within 60 nm of the axis. A tropical wave is analyzed just east of the Lesser Antilles in the central Atlantic with axis near 58W south of 15N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from 10N-15N between 54W-58W. A west Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern Panama near 81W S of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 10N14W to 07N26W. The ITCZ begins near 07N26W to 07N29W, then it continues west of a tropical wave near 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 32W, no significant deep convection is occurring in association with the monsoon trough or ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over the Florida peninsula and a ridge runs west-northwestward toward Texas. With the pressure gradient weak south of the ridge, E to SE winds are generally 10-20 kt. Seas are also generally low, though peak at 6-7 ft in the western Gulf. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf this afternoon. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through early Sun morning. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A 1024 mb Bermuda-Azores high is centered near 27N42W with ridging extending westward to Florida and eastward to the Canary Islands. Winds south of the ridge are generally quescent with peak trade winds of only 20 kt in the central Atlantic. A cold front and a pre- frontal trough are located near 30N from near 65W to 73W. Winds associated with the trough and front are 20 kt or weaker. No significant convection is occurring over the tropical North Atlantic this afternoon. High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually weaken through early next week as the tail of a weak cold front moves across the northern waters. A low pressure will move into the north-central waters on Mon evening and meander in the region through Wed when it will weaken into a surface trough. The surface trough will drift NW across the Bahamas through Thu evening before dissipating. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea/Ramos