139 AXNT20 KNHC 221805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support gale force winds off the coast of Colombia through Sunday morning. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 31W S of 10N, moving west at 15 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near this feature from 05N-08N between 28W-31W. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic with axis near 55W S of 14N, moving west at 15 to 25 kt. Scattered showers persist with this wave from 07N-14N between 52W-60W. A southwest Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern Panama near 81W S of 18N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air continues to limit convection near this wave, however scattered thunderstorms continue across Costa Rica, Panama and the coast of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 10N15W to 07N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N24W to 07N28W, then it continues W of the tropical wave near 06N32W to the coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 31W, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the ITCZ from 05N-08N between 24W-28W and 33W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level and surface ridge prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with a 1021 mb high pressure extending from the western Atlantic. Tranquil conditions are seen throughout the basin. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are in the western Gulf with tighter pressure gradient, and gentle winds in the eastern Gulf under the high. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed as it moves w to nw over the SW Gulf. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over Mexico will result in moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. Dry Saharan air covers much of the Caribbean, with little to no convective activity noted in the latest satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is present near the the Colombian 1010 mb low pressure. The Pacific monsoon trough continues over the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica supporting for scattered to moderate convection over the SW Caribbean. Latest ASCAT data show fresh to strong trades are seen across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the E Caribbean and light to moderate winds are in the NW basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through tonight. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A line of thunderstorms are seen along a pre-frontal trough, analyzed from 31N64W to 29N73W, in the western Atlantic from 29N-31N between 64W-74W. A cold front enters our forecast area near 31N66W to 30N73W curves back northwest and transitions to a stationary front near 31N76W to the coast of South Carolina. Otherwise, ridging from a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N40W dominates the region. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through tonight. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres