000 AXNT20 KNHC 221031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulse of gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis near 28W S of 10N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near this feature from 05N-06N between 28W-30W. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic with axis near 55W S of 14N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers persist with this wave from 09N-12N between 52W-56W. A southwest Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern Panama near 80W S of 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air continues to limit convection near this wave, although scattered thunderstorms are continue across Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 13N17W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described above, isolated thunderstorms are noted near the monsoon trough from 05N- 10N between 15W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level and surface ridging prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with a 1020 mb high along the coast of south-central Florida near 28N84W. Tranquil conditions are seen throughout the basin. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern Gulf under the high, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the Yucatan due to the thermal trough, analyzed from 22N87W to 18N93W. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the next several days. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over Mexico will result in moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf through Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin. Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no convective activity noted in the latest satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection near the monsoon trough continues over the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 11N between 76W-84W. Fresh to strong trades are seen across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the E Caribbean and light to moderate winds are in the NW basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia through Saturday night. Strong winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean thereafter. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A line of thunderstorms are seen along a pre-frontal trough, analyzed from 31N68W to 30N73W, in the western Atlantic from 29N- 31N between 64W-74W. Another area of isolated thunderstorms is seen in the central Atlantic from 25N-31N between 54W-58W. Otherwise, ridging from a 1024 mb high pressure near 26N43W dominates the region. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds are in the western Atlantic, W of 62W. The Atlantic ridge, that currently dominates the area, will weaken as a couple of weak frontal boundaries move across the region Saturday through Monday. Then, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the forecast area through Wednesday. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect the NE waters through early this morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR