000 AXNT20 KNHC 211723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulses of gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Seas of 11-16 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 22N from 01N-10N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment mainly east of 26W. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic, with axis along 46W from 00N-12N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is well depicted in model guidance, satellite imagery, as well as scatterometer data. Scattered showers persist in the wave's environment between 40W- 52W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W from 07N-19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Due to dry air, no convection is noted near this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N16W to 16N20W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N23W to 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from 09N33W to 10N43W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, and with it fair weather. A thermal surface trough near the Yucatan is analyzed from 22N89W to 19N92W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the basin. The diurnal trough near the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through early next week as it moves NW over the SW Gulf. High pressure ridge over the central Gulf will slowly move northward through Sat, then remain nearly stationary over the NE Gulf Sun through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above in regards to the Caribbean Gale Warning currently in effect. A tropical wave is traversing the basin. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no shower activity noted. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is noted over the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 12N between 78W-83W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. High pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs centered near 27N40W and 27N30W. Moderate to fresh south- southwesterly winds are also noted in the western Atlantic. High pressure ridge will continue dominating much of the region through Sat, then weaken Sun into early next week as weak low pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast. Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight, then subside by Sat as the pressure gradient relaxes. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect the northern waters through tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA