000 AXNT20 KNHC 210545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia on both Friday and Saturday night. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected across the south- central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 15W S of 11N. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of this feature from 05N-09N between 13W-18W. A tropical wave is along 43W S of 13N. Scattered showers are seen from 02N-12N between 41W-45W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W S of 18N. Due to dry air, no convection is noted near this feature at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W S of 16N. Scattered moderate convection is seen mostly in Central America with some activity in the Caribbean, from 11N-14N between 82W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 07N41W, then W of a tropical wave near 06N45W to the coast of Brazil near 07N59W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 05N-08N between 16W-24W. Scattered showers are seen near the ITCZ from 08N-12N between 45W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Showers continue across the SE Gulf right off the Florida coast as a weak mid-upper level trough over the SE U.S. begins to move into the Atlantic. These showers are seen from 24N-26N between 81W-84W. Winds in the eastern Gulf are light to gentle out of the southwest, with light southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the Yucatan. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through early next week as it moves NW over the SW Gulf. A high pressure ridge over the central Gulf will slowly move northward through Saturday, then remain nearly stationary over the NE Gulf Sunday through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale Warning. Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, north of 16N and west of 74W, with little to no shower activity noted, other than some isolated thunderstorms in the Windward Passage. Farther east, drier air is starting to move into the Lesser Antilles as moisture from the tropical wave along 71W departs the area. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is also seen in the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 10N between 75W-81W. Strong trade winds continue to cover the central Caribbean Sea from 11N- 13N between 67W- 75W, with near gales over portions of the south- central Caribbean. Seas in this area are estimated to be 9 to 14 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are seen in the northern basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia Friday night and Saturday night. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through early next week. A tropical wave near 72W will produce strong gusty winds as it moves W across the central and western Caribbean through Saturday. Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Mid-upper level trough moving off of the U.S. East Coast is inducing scattered thunderstorms off the Florida coast/north of the Bahamas from 27N-29N between 78W-80W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the rest of the domain with fair weather throughout the area. Three 1025 mb highs are analyzed in the Atlantic near 29N30W, 27N43W, and 26N52W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh south-southwesterly winds are also noted in the western Atlantic, north of 27N between 65W- 81W. Strong winds north of Hispaniola will subside by Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect the northern waters through Friday night ahead of a cold front that will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday. A high pressure ridge will dominate much of the region through Saturday, then weaken Sunday into early next week as weak low pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR