000 AXNT20 KNHC 202326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 726 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia Friday night and again Saturday night. Seas of 12-17 ft are expected across the south- central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 41W S of 13N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate showers are seen within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 02N-11N. A moisture maximum in the LPW is noticeable near the wave. The wave will enhance showers and tstorms in the Windward Islands this weekend. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 06N-18N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are seen behind the wave axis north of 14.5N. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over Hispaniola, northern Colombia and NW Venezuela. The wave will produce scattered tstorms and strong gusty winds as it moves W across the central and western Caribbean through Sat. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 06N-16N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over the SW Caribbean waters southwest of a line from 10N75.5W to 15N83W. This convection is also occurring over Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. The southern portion of this convection is being enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N22W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to 07N40W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 06N43W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the convection near the tropical wave along 41W, scattered moderate convection is near and within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 25N92W to 21N96W with no associated precipitation. Showers and tstorms associated with a weak mid-upper level trough over the SE U.S. are remaining over land. The only showers in the Gulf are found off the SW coast of Florida from 24N-26N, east of 84W. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night as it moves NW over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the central Gulf will slowly move northward through Sun, then remain nearly stationary over the NE Gulf through Tue night. Therefore, fairly good weather conditions will continue in the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale Warning. Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, north of 16N and west of 74W, with little to no shower activity noted, other than near the south coast of Cuba. Farther east, drier air is starting to move into the Lesser Antilles as moisture from the tropical wave along 71W departs the area. Strong trade winds continue to cover the entire central Caribbean Sea from 11N-18N between 68W-80W, with near gales over portions of the south-central Caribbean. Seas in this area are estimated to be 9 to 14 ft. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through at least Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-upper level trough over the SE U.S. is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms north of a line from 29N81W to 30N76W to 30N69W. High pressure ridging covers the remainder of the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and Hispaniola will produce strong winds north of Hispaniola tonight before relaxing on Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect the northern waters through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move off the U.S. East Coast. A high pressure ridge will dominate much of the region through Sat, then weaken Sun into early next week as the cold front continues moving E across the western Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen