000 AXNT20 KNHC 181807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight pressure gradient as the Atlantic ridge strengthens will allow winds to pulse to gale force each night this week off the coast of Colombia. A NE to E gale-force winds is expected to return tonight. The sea heights will be ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa and extends along 04N-14N between 18W-20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-08N between 17W-21W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 12N southward, moving W at 20 kt. The wave axis is noted in the satellite imagery and model diagnostic data suggests a faster motion further west compared to the last 12 hours. No significant convection is noted near the wave but can not ruled out scattered showers are possible near the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 47W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 15N southward, moving 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south and southeast of the line. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 09N13W, to 07N21W. ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 06N40W, then resumes west of the tropical wave at 07N46W to 08N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 21W-31W and from 06N-10N between 49W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A digging mid-level trough is extending into the northwest and central Gulf of Mexico. This trough, along with upper-level diffluence in the area, is leading to another round of scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the north central Gulf coast, the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. Convection is noted north of 26N to 30N between 86W-89W and near the coast of Florida from 24N-26N between 81W-83W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is relatively quiet. A surface trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche from 24N91W to 20N93W with no significant convection observed near the trough. Enhanced moisture along with scattered thunderstorms will continue over portions of the eastern Gulf through mid week. Otherwise, high pressure will remain across the Gulf through Saturday. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds each night as it moves off the coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special features section in regards to the developing gale north of Colombia. Near-gales are expected over a large area in the south-central Caribbean, with strong trades over the entire central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Currently, a tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. The western Caribbean is dominated by ridging, with no significant shower activity seen for most of the central and western Caribbean. The exception is over Cuba, where daytime heating is causing afternoon showers and thunderstorms from 20N between 82W-84W and western Cuba. The ASCAT pass shows strong trades covering the central Caribbean from 67W-73W. Fresh trades are elsewhere. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force each night off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with upper-level diffluence over Florida and the NW Bahamas is leading to more rounds of scattered moderate convection along the Florida Peninsula and the western Atlantic, including the northwest Bahamas. This convection can be seen west of 73W, from 26N-31N. Surface high pressure ridging covers the remainder of the area. A cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 23N24W to 23N32W. No significant showers are seen with the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres