000 AXNT20 KNHC 172318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 718 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will allow winds to pulse to gale force each night this week off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela starting tonight at 15/0000 UTC. Seas are expected to be 10 to 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W S of 13N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate showers are ahead of the wave from 05N-08N between 36W-39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49/50W S of 13N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near this wave from 06N-10N between 47W-50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 04N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are tstorms are seen from 06N-15N between 57W-69W, including the SE Caribbean, Windward Islands and ABC Islands. The tropical wave that was previously along 74W has been removed from the analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 07N47W to the coast of South America near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ between 42W-46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-12N between 53W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A digging mid-level trough is extending into the northwest and central Gulf of Mexico. This trough, along with upper-level diffluence in the area, is leading to a squall line that is oriented from 24.5N94W to 28.5N91W as of 2100 UTC. The squall line has been moving slowly eastward but is building southwestward, with thunderstorms as far southwest as 23.5N94.5W as of 2200 UTC. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is within 30 nm either side of the squall line. The line extends northeastward to SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi in the form of scattered to broken thunderstorms. Elsewhere, scattered tstorms are seen off the SW coast of Florida, east of 83.5W, with scattered to numerous tstorms over the Florida Peninsula. Additional scattered tstorms are north of western Cuba, from 22N- 24N between 80W-85W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is relatively quiet. Look for enhanced moisture along with scattered thunderstorms to continue over portions of the eastern Gulf through Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will remain across the Gulf through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special features section in regards to the developing gale north of Colombia. Near-gales are expected over a large area in the south-central Caribbean, with strong trades over the entire central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Currently, a tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. The western Caribbean is dominated by ridging, with no significant shower activity seen for most of the central and western Caribbean. The exception is over Cuba, where daytime heating is causing afternoon and early evening showers and tstorms. The ASCAT pass from Monday morning showed strong trades covering the central Caribbean from 70W-79W, with near gales from 11.5N-13.5N between 73W-78W. Fresh trades are elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with upper-level diffluence over Florida and the NW Bahamas is leading to more rounds of scattered moderate convection from the Straits of Florida to the western Atlantic, including the northwest Bahamas. This convection can be seen west of 75W, from 22N-31N. Surface high pressure ridging covers the remainder of the area west of 40W. A cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 29N20W to 24N32W to 27N39W. No significant showers are seen with the front. A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tue and Wed, accompanied by enhanced showers and tstorms. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the region through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen