000 AXNT20 KNHC 171743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will allow winds to pulse to minimal gale force off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela at night starting tonight. Seas are expected to be 10 to 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W S of 13N. There is currently no significant convection associated with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W S of 13N. Scattered showers are seen near this wave from 05N-11N between 45W-48W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W S of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is seen particularly to the west of this wave from 11N-13N between 61W-64W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W S of 17N. There is currently no significant convection associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N29W, then W of a tropical wave near 07N30W to 07N46W. The ITCZ then continues W of another tropical wave near 07N47W to the coast of Brazil near 08N60W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from 04N-09N between 31W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 07N-11N between 53W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A digging mid-level trough is extending into the NW Gulf. This is leading to a squall line that has moved off the Texas coast and into the NW Gulf from 26N-29N between 91W-97W. Expect frequent lightning and gusty winds with this. A 1014 mb mesohigh is analyzed behind this squall line near 29N94W. Moist tropical air continues to be transported across the SE Gulf and across Florida leading to scattered moderate convection across the area in addition to isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. This activity is seen from 24N-29N between 80W-84W. Ridging can be seen across the rest of the basin. Light to gentle southeasterly winds are seen across most of the basin, with moderate winds behind the squall line. High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Friday. Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds will continue for most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the special features section in regards to the developing gale north of Colombia. Two tropical waves are traversing the basin. See the Tropical Waves section for details. Upper level ridging extends across the basin which is leading to quiet conditions with no significant convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the Windward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are seen north of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and western basin. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the northern Caribbean. Minimal gale force winds are expected north of Colombia and Venezuela beginning tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence is leading to more rounds of scattered moderate convection from the Straits of Florida to the western Atlantic, including the northern Bahamas. This convection can be seen from 24N-31N between 75W-80W. A mid-level trough is extending across the central Atlantic, bringing a cold front into the waters near 30N19W to 27N39W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a 1024 mb high analyzed near 25N43W and 26N58W. A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected just N of Hispaniola at night. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the region through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR