000 AXNT20 KNHC 162331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W S of 13N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms are seen within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-08.5N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40/41W S of 13N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56/57W S of 13N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 09N-12N. This wave contains a lot of moisture and associated rainfall. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms in Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands beginning late tonight and lasting through Monday. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 07N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated tstorms are seen along the wave axis N of 16N and over western Puerto Rico, with additional tstorms over N Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 08N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. A small area of scattered tstorms is seen near the W coast of Jamaica, with scattered showers and tstorms also noted over Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ begins near 08N18W to 06N26W to 07N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-11N between 45W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence is noted over Florida. Above normal atmospheric moisture content is over the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen from 24N-26N between 84W-87W, near the Lower Florida Keys and over central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen elsewhere from 21N-28N, east of 93W. Surface ridging covers much of the northern and NW Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are traversing the basin. See the Tropical Waves section for details. Abundant atmospheric moisture over Cuba and the Yucatan Channel is producing scattered moderate afternoon and early evening convection over Cuba and portions of Hispaniola. However, most of the open Central Caribbean is free of any significant showers. The ASCAT pass from Sunday morning showed fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. A tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will allow winds to increase to near gale force off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela early this week. Maximum seas will build to 11-14 ft in the south-central Caribbean from 11N-15N between 73W-79W. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection from a mid-level trough and upper- level diffluence is seen across Florida, the NW Bahamas and the western Atlantic west of 76W from Cuba to 30N. A stationary front extends from Bermuda to 29N69W. Scattered showers are seen in the area. A surface ridge axis extends across the basin from 31N16W to 22N30W to 24N47W to 30N63W. North of the ridge axis, a cold front enters the area near 32N26W to 29N30W to 30N29W. Isolated showers are possible along and ahead of the front. A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tuesday through Thursday. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the region through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen