000 AXNT20 KNHC 152313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 713 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis south of 12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 13N southward, moving W near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N-09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46/47W from 13N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are within 210 nm E of the wave axis from 06N-10N. The wave is likely to enhance showers and tstorms over the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Monday. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 08N-17N, moving W near 20 kt. GOES-16 and CIRA imagery show a low-mid level moisture maximum accompanying the wave. Scattered showers and tstorms are affecting the southern Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Trinidad and NE Venezuela. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the E Caribbean E of 67W, mostly S of 15N. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms beginning late tonight and early Sunday over the ABC Islands, and later on Sunday over Puerto Rico. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 07N-18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered tstorms over northern Venezuela, but it is not producing any significant shower activity over the waters of the Caribbean at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 06N33W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms continues over the southern Gulf of Mexico stretching from the Bay of Campeche to southern Florida. This is due to upper-level diffluence as well as mid to upper level moisture advection into the area. A surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche. East of the trough, strong south-southeast winds were seen on the ASCAT pass from midday Saturday from 20N-23N between 94.5W-96W. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge stretches over the northeastern and north-central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are seen over the eastern half of the Gulf. High pressure ridging will prevail across the basin through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean, while upper-level cyclonic flow prevails across the eastern Caribbean. High pressure over the western Atlantic is inducing fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with strong winds in the south- central Caribbean off of Colombia. Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. See section above for details. High atmospheric moisture content stretching from Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing diurnal afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered tstorms associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough are seen over Panama and over the far SW Caribbean S of 10N and W of 80W. High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. High pressure will strengthen early next week, and winds will increase to near gale force off Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N64W and stretches west to 30N73W. The front then stalls from 30N73W to the coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the stationary front from 24N-28N between 73W-82W, including over southern and central Florida as well as the northwest Bahamas. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and high atmospheric moisture content. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail along and within 90 nm S of the cold front between 65W-73W. A 1022 mb high is near 30N62W. A surface trough containing isolated showers extends from 31N48W to 28N56W. Farther E, a weakening cold front is analyzed from 32N24W to 28N26W to 26N30W, weakening stationary to 26N49W. Little to no shower activity is seen with the front, as high pressure is starting to build in over the region. The stationary front along 30N will lift north of the area as a warm front tonight. A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Thu as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen