000 AXNT20 KNHC 151741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1719 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W S of 14N. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm east of this feature. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W S of 12N. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are 50 nm within the vicinity of this wave from 03N-08N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W S of 12N. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of this wave from 07N-11N between 40W-45W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is beginning to approach the Caribbean as it passes over the Lesser Antilles along an axis of 60W S of 17N. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near this wave from 11N-16N between 60W-64W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W S of 17N. No convection is occurring near this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 06N34W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 05N35W toward the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving along the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 20W-23W. There are also some showers along the ITCZ from 05N-07N between 35W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is currently moving across northern Mexico, bringing SW upper level winds across the basin. A 1010 mb low is seen in the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W and convection is firing along this low and across the central Bay of Campeche, from 19N- 25N between 91W-95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen within 50 nm of the Louisiana coastline. A trough is analyzed from 26N82W to 30N87W. Thunderstorms are beginning to ignite along this feature off the Florida coastline, from 25N-28N. A recent scatterometer pass showers light to gentle easterly winds in the eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds associated with Atlantic high pressure will prevail across the basin through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into the northern Caribbean. Meanwhile, the central and eastern Caribbean is under an upper level ridge. Most of the basin remains tranquil in terms of convection due to subsidence from the ridge. However, there are some isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern Caribbean from 12N- 15N between 62W-67W. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed across Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Western Cuba also has scattered moderate convection. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds in the central basin. Fresh to strong winds are north of Colombia. Light to gentle trades are in the northern basin. High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. High pressure will strengthen early next week, and winds will increase to near gale force off Colombia and Venezuela. Seas will build up to 13 or 14 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N70W and stretches west to 30N76W. The front then stalls from 30N76W to the coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 70 nm of the front east of 76W. There is also scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas from 23N-28N between 76W-80W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front enters the waters near 31N26W to 25N40W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 25N40W to 26N50W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from 30N24W to 24N33W. Cloudiness with some showers are seen near both of these features. Another surface trough is seen from 31N47W to 28N57W with some clouds and light showers associated with it. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin with a 1023 mb high near 29N62W and a 1021 mb high near 24N50W. Light to gentle winds are seen in the Atlantic north of 16N with gentle to moderate winds south of 16N. A stationary front in the western Atlantic will lift northward and be north of the area tonight. A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Wednesday as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR