000 AXNT20 KNHC 151104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 15N southward. This wave was repositioned, earlier at 28W, based on the TPW data. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 21W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 13N southward. This wave was added to the 15/0600 UTC analysis based on the long-loop satellite imagery and the 700 mb trough positions for the GFS model and for the ECMWF model. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 30W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 14N southward, based on the 700 mb trough positions for the GFS model and for the ECMWF model. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 40W and 47W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 17N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, probably related more to the ITCZ, are from 12N southward between 55W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 19N southward, moving across central Hispaniola, based on the 700 mb GFS model. Isolated moderate rainshowers are around Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 05N33W, to 03N44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 300 nm of the coast of Africa from 04N to 12N between 08W and 20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the eastern side of a 100W trough that is in Mexico. A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 30N73W, continuing to Florida near 29N83W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 19N to 21N between 91W and 95W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere to the east of the line that runs from 29N83W to 28N90W to 24N98W. Southeast to south winds, that are associated with Atlantic Ocean high pressure, will prevail across the basin through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 22N58W cyclonic circulation center, to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, to 15N72W in the Caribbean Sea, and toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 22N between 63W and 74W, surrounding Puerto Rico and nearby islands to the east of it, and Hispaniola. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Windward Passage, from 17N to 20N between 60W and 70W, and from 10N to 17N between 58W and 65W. High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea this weekend. High pressure will strengthen early next week, and the wind speeds will increase to near gale-force off Colombia and Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front is along 32N67W, to 30N73W, and to Florida near 29N83W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers are to the west of the line that passes through Bermuda, to SE Cuba near 21N76W. An upper level trough extends from a 34N29W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to 25N30W, to 23N40W, to a 22N58W cyclonic circulation center. The trough continues from 22N58W to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and to 15N72W in the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 20W and 50W, and from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 50W and the line of clouds/ precipitation that is related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida cold front. A cold front passes through 32N26W to 28N27W and 25N32W. A surface trough continues from 25N32W to 25N50W. Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 20W and 50W. A second and separate cold front passes through 32N46W to 31N49W. The current frontal boundary that reaches Florida will shift eastward, and weaken through Sunday morning. High pressure will build into the central Atlantic Ocean early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt