000 AXNT20 KNHC 141747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. A tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 05N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. Plenty of Saharan dust is noted surrounding the wave. Thus, limited convective activity. A tropical wave extends along 36W from 03N-13N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 07N-17N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near wave axis. Abundant Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery. A tropical wave is along 65W from 08N-17N moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the wave axis, and the Lesser Antilles, particularly from 12N-16N. A distinct maximum in total precipitable water accompanies the wave. This wave brought scattered showers to the Windward Islands, and combined with the local effects is forecast to support scattered showers and isolated tstms over Puerto Rico this afternoon and evening hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the W coast of Africa near the Guinea/Guinea Bissau border and extends to near 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N32W to 04N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 27N-30W, and within about 120 nm north of the ITCZ axis between 39W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak frontal boundary extends across northern Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system will lift north of the area later today. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and extends from 27N85W to 23N92W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers is noted SE of the trough affecting the majority of the SE Gulf. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and tstms are related to the trough. Abundant moisture will persist over the Bay of Campeche as well as over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala this upcoming weekend, keeping the likelihood of more convective activity. A weak low pressure may develop over the area, but no tropical cyclone formation is expected due to strong upper-level winds. High pressure will build across the Gulf region this weekend and prevail through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. A surface trough is just E of Jamaica, and marks the leading edge of African dust affecting the Caribbean Sea. Some inverted V-pattern is noted in the cloud field associated with this through, forecast to move westward across the remainder of the basin the rest of today and Sat. This trough could enhance some shower and thunderstorm activity over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Sat. Otherwise, high pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through the weekend. The ridge in the central Atlantic will strengthen early next week, and winds will increase near Colombia and Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N74W, then continue SW across northern Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico where it becomes stationary. Scattered showers and tstms are associated with the front, covering mainly the waters N of 26N and W of 72W. A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convective activity. The front will shift eastward across the waters north of 30N before stalling and dissipating from Bermuda to central Florida through Sat. Model guidance suggest that a trough will move from the NW Bahamas, across south Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Sat. This will keep a wet and active weather pattern across the region this weekend. A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N58W. Another high pressure center of 1024 mb is located near 24N37W. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N29W, and continues westward to near 28N45W. A surface trough extends at the end of the front, and runs from 27N45W to 24N53W. Patches of low level moisture with isolated showers are associated with the front/trough. Over the Atlantic, Saharan dust is evident north of roughly 11N reaching as far west as the east and central Caribbean. Both, the Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS, and the GOES16 RGB Geocolor images confirmed the presence of the African dust. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR