000 AXNT20 KNHC 141004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. A tropical wave has an axis along 22W from 04N-12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave axis based on the TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is noted north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal. A tropical wave extends along 35W from 03N-12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers is observed in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is along 49W from 04N-14N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. The GOES-16 LPW products show a maximum in low-mid level moisture. Abundant Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery a few hours ago, prior to sunset. The tropical wave is along 63W from 07N-18N. Scattered shower activity is noted along the Lesser Antilles Islands west of the wave axis. A distinct maximum in total precipitable water accompanies the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 06N32W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N37W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 01N49W. Aside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted extending 100 nm to the north and south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 27N87W, then stalls from 27N87W to 26N94W. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 26N86W to 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the front north of 26N-30N and east of 87W. In addition, scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough axis extending 180 nm SE of the trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the Yucatan Peninsula extending into the Bay of Campeche from 19N south to 18N. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Drier conditions are over the NW Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. A cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and lift north of the area later today. High pressure will build across the area this weekend and prevail through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is bringing scattered showers to the Windward Islands. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Most of the Caribbean waters are currently free of significant shower activity, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near the land areas of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba and Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over the Gulf of Honduras into Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, and south into Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh trades prevail throughout much of the Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, and gentle winds from the Windward Passage to South of Cuba. High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through the weekend. The ridge in the central Atlantic will strengthen early next week, and winds will increase near Colombia and Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper-level diffluence over Florida along the SE base of an upper-trough over the eastern U.S. is inducing scattered moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula. Also, scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the western Atlantic north of 25N and 75W west, including the Florida Keys and Florida Straits, as well as the central and northern Bahamas. A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 29N56W. A cold front enters the area near 31N29W to 7N39W. A surface trough extends at the end of the front at that point to 27N48W. Scattered showers are seen along the vicinity of the front and trough. There is an area of scattered moderate convection northeast of the front. A cold front off the southeast U.S. coast will shift eastward across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will build into the central Atlantic early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres