000 AXNT20 KNHC 132340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 740 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. A tropical wave has an axis along 20/21W from 05N-13N, moving west at 15-20 kt. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave. Scattered moderate showers are seen within 90 nm E and 150 nm W of the wave axis from 07N-10N. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave axis based on the TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is noted north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal. A tropical wave extends along 33W from 03N-12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-10N along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 47/48W from 05N-15N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. The GOES-16 LPW products show a maximum in low-mid level moisture. Abundant Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery a few hours ago, prior to sunset. The tropical wave that was previously relocated from 60W to 69W has been relocated back to 60W based on model diagnostics that trace the wave along 60W back to the coast of Africa. A distinct maximum in total precipitable water accompanies the wave along 60W. The wave is moving west around 10 kt. Radar from the Windward Islands and satellite imagery show scattered showers and isolated tstorms moving through the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, as well as Trinidad. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 07N31W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N35W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N51W. Aside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted, although an area of numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is along the monsoon trough just inland from the W coast of Africa over Guinea and Guinea-Bissau. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 26N90W to 25N96W. A reinforcing cold front extends from near Pensacola Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana to near Corpus Christi Texas. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 19N94W to 26N90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the dissipating stationary front east of 93W, as well as in the SE Gulf of Mexico and over the Florida Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing the convection over the SE Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate to strong convection is currently seen over the western Yucatan Peninsula and extreme eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 89W-92W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico southeast of a line from 30N86W to 25N98W. Drier conditions are over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and then lift north of the area Friday. Enhanced moisture will linger in the southeastern Gulf, leading to a continuation of scattered to numerous showers and tstorms in the SE Gulf. High pressure will build across the basin this weekend and prevail through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is bringing scattered showers to the Windward Islands. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Most of the Caribbean waters are currently free of significant shower activity, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near the land areas of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba and Haiti, left over from the afternoon heating. Scattered moderate convection is seen over Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Fresh trades prevail throughout much of the Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, and gentle winds in the area south of Cuba. High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Mon before increasing in areal extent Mon night and Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected elsewhere. Expect enhanced afternoon and early evening shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of Cuba through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Cape Hatteras to Brunswick Georgia, with a surface trough ahead of it. Upper-level diffluence over Florida along the SE base of an upper-trough over the eastern U.S. is inducing scattered moderate convection over Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the western Atlantic north of 25N and west of 76W, including the Florida Keys and Florida Straits, as well as the central and northwest Bahamas. Additional isolated tstorms are seen north of 27N between 71W-76W. A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N55W and a 1024 mb high near 27N39W. In between the two surface highs, a cold front enters the area near 32N32W to 29N41W. A surface trough continues from 29N41W to 27N52W. Scattered showers are ahead of the front east of 33W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are near the cold front west of 33W. A high pressure ridge, that currently extends W from the 1025 mb high near 30N55W, will shift eastward through Fri. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight and shift eastward across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen