000 AXNT20 KNHC 131736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. A tropical wave has an axis along 18W from 06N to 13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave. A few showers are noted near the wave axis at this time. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave axis based on the TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is noted north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal. A tropical wave extends along 31W from 03N to 11N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 03N to 08N between 26W and 36W. A tropical wave is along 46W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Patches of low level moisture are noted on either side of the wave axis. Abundant Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES16 RGB Geocolor imagery. The tropical wave previouly located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea is relocated farther west based on surface observations and visible satellite imagery that clearly indicates some inverted V-pattern in the cloud field near the wave axis. The tropical wave is now located along 69W, extending from La Mona Passage to the ABC Islands. No significant weather is associated with the wave. Some African dust is seen on satellite imagery in the wake of the wave axis over the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N51W. Aside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted along the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ axis. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to just south of Brownsville Texas. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is just ahead of the front. A mid to upper-level trough reaching from the Ohio Valley to the far NW Gulf is supporting a reinforcing cold front that is just moving off the coast of Texas. The reinforcing cold front will merge with the first cold front late today. The merged front will then lift slowly north of the area through Sat. A surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf and runs from 25N91W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Abundant moisture will persist across the Gulf region through Fri in association with the front and trough. Mainly light to gentle winds, and 2 to 3 ft seas are related to these features. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Winds of 20 kt will occur mainly during the evening hours within about 90 nm of the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. The wave will move across Hispaniola tonight and Fri producing some cloudiness and scattered showers. In addition, a mid to upper-level trough analyzed along the east coast of Florida through central Cuba will continue to enhance convection over parts of Cuba, Jamaica Hispaniola and the Cayman Islands today and Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds are active off the coast of northeast Colombia, with seas of 7 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas over the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 seas over the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere. Similar wind speeds are also expected just E of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N57W. The high pressure will shift east through Fri ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast tonight. Then, the front will shift eastward across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will follow the front, moving into the western Atlantic on Sat. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N36W, and continues westward to near 27N47W. Isolated to scattered showers could be associated with the frontal boundary. A mid to upper-level trough located just off the east coast of Florida is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Bahamas, and parts of the Old Bahamas Channel. Plenty of moisture will persist over the Bahamas and south Florida through Fri, and will continue to promote the development of showers and thunderstorms. Over the Atlantic, Saharan dust is evident north of roughly 11N reaching as far west as the eastern Caribbean. Both, the Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS, and the GOES16 RGB Geocolor images confirmed the presence of the African dust. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR