000 AXNT20 KNHC 131115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 715 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 16W/17W from 06N to 12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant weather is noted near the wave axis at this time. While deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave axis, Saharan dust is noted north of 12N, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 30W/31W from 02N to 10N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 25W and 35W, related to the tropical wave and the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 45W/46W from 04N to 11N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant weather is associated with this wave. An Caribbean tropical wave is south of 15N just west of the Leeward and Windward Islands near 61W/62W, drifting west at 5 to 10 kt. The wave is in an area of fairly dry mid level air on the west side of a mid to upper trough, and no significant weather is associated with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 25W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalling front reaches from near Panama City Florida to south of Brownsville Texas along the Tamaulipas coast near 25N98W. A mid to upper trough reaching from the Ohio Valley to coastal Texas is supporting a reinforcing front still north of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active in a broad swath ahead of the mid to upper trough, from the southwest Gulf through the northeast Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas persist across the Gulf. The reinforcing cold front will enter the northern Gulf and merge with the stalled front Fri. The combined front will then lift slowly north of the area through Sat. Winds will increase over the western Gulf as high pressure shifts W across the SE United States and low pres develops over the plains states. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp mid to upper level trough is analyzed along the east coast of Florida through central Cuba. Divergence aloft on the southeastern quadrant of the trough is supporting a few thunderstorms between eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti, just outside the Windward Passage. Mid level dry air is evident over the northeast Caribbean, south of another, broader mid to upper level trough north of the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean, along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica, near the monsoon trough. No other significant thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere. Fresh to strong trade winds are active off the coast of northeast Colombia, with seas of 7 to 9 ft covering most of the south central and southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas over the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 seas over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Mon, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, a sharp mid to upper-level trough just off the east coast of Florida is supporting scattered thunderstorms over the central Bahamas and northeast of the northern Bahamas this morning. At the surface, a ridge along roughly 28N is supporting moderate SE to S flow across the region, except for fresh to strong easterly winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola as noted in ship observations and an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Elsewhere seas are 2 to 4 ft. The high pressure across the region will shift east through Fri. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight and shift eastward across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 34N45W is building to the north of a weak cold front drifting into the forecast area from 32N36W to 29N51W. A mid to upper trough reaches from 32N35W to just north of Puerto Rico. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh trade winds in the deep tropics well east of Barbados, between the high pressure north of the area and an a tropical wave approaching from the east. Convergence of the trade winds along with upper support southeast of the upper trough is support clusters of thunderstorms off the coast of Guyana at this time. Over the eastern Atlantic, Saharan dust is evident north of roughly 11N reaching as far west as 40W. Weak ridging is support moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough as noted in various scatterometer passes. Concurrent altimeter passes showed seas roughly 5 to 7 ft. Other than the showers and thunderstorms active along the ITCZ between 25W and 35W, no significant weather is observed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen