000 AXNT20 KNHC 130531 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Corrected second paragraph Gulf of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N30W to 10N30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 07N between 25W and 35W. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N45W to 13N44W. This feature has no significant convection currently associated with it. Satellite imagery shows the wave is surrounded by a dry SAL air mass. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N60W to 15N60W. This feature also has no significant convection currently associated with it. TPW satellite imagery and the Barbados 12Z sounding show convection in the vicinity of the wave is inhibited by a mid-level layer of dry air. In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N85W to 16N85W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with the wave is present S of the Caribbean mainly over Honduras and El Salvador from 12N to 16N between 86W and 90W. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06N30W, then resumes near 05N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 11N between 12W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches from near Biloxi Mississippi across the Mouth of the Mississippi River to 28N94W to near Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. A trough crosses the Gulf S of the front from 26N89W to 23N96W. An upper level trough stretches from central Texas to near Cabo Corrientes Mexico. Upper level divergence east of this trough is combining with deep layer moisture pooling near the front and trough to generate scattered moderate convection over the NW half of the Gulf except within 120 nm of the Texas coast. A thermally induced trough curves along the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N91W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen primarily over SE Mexico from 16N to 19N between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 19N to 23N between 86W and 90W. Light to gentle winds are seen across the basin. The cold front will stall across the north Gulf today, then lift slowly N to near the northern Gulf coast. A second front will push S across the southern United States toward the northern Gulf and merge with the first cold front Friday. The combined front will then lift slowly north of the area through Saturday. Winds will increase over the western Gulf as high pressure shifts W across the SE United States and low pres develops over the plains states. CARIBBEAN SEA... The only significant convective activity in the Caribbean is confined to the SW portion of the basin near the monsoon trough axis, which crosses Panama and follows the NW coast of Colombia to 1009 mb low pres centered near 10N75W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is taking place near the coast of Panama from 08N to 10N between 79W and 84W. Trade winds are moderate to fresh over the central Caribbean, except along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, where winds are fresh to strong. Gentle to moderate trades are noted over the NW Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Saturday, with moderate to locally fresh trades prevailing elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extending from 29N79W to near Jamaica is producing upper level divergence over the Bahamas. The trough has begun to weaken and lift out to the NE during the next couple of days. Convection over the Bahamas has diminished to isolated. A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N38W and curves WSW to 29N54W. A weak trough lies just SW of the front from 28N51W to 26N56W. Cloudiness and low-topped showers are seen within 120 nm either side of the front. Double barreled 1026 mb high pressure is analyzed near 40N25W and near 35N45W. Ridging on the south side of these anticyclones is maintaining fair weather and light to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S of 25N between 25W and 60W. The high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will shift east through Friday. This will enable a cold front to move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight, then progress E across the waters north of 30N through Saturday. High pressure will push E from the SE United States toward Bermuda in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM