000 AXNT20 KNHC 122353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis near 44W S of 13N. This feature currently has no significant convection associated with it as it is surrounded by SAL air. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis near 60W S of 14N. This feature also has no significant convection with it due to mid- level dry air inhibiting any activity. A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has an axis near 83W S of 15N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection continues to be within the vicinity of this feature from 11N-15N between 78W-85W. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 04N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are evident from 04N-09N between 25-35W along the ITCZ. There is also some scattered showers with isolated convection seen along and near the monsoon trough from 07N-10N between 13W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches across the Gulf from a 1010 mb low in the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to northeast Mexico near 28N97W. A trough is right off the south Texas coast from 28N96W to 26N96W. An upper level trough is digging across the Gulf, with an axis stretching from the central Gulf Coast to northeast Mexico. Upper level divergence east of this trough along with plenty of moisture is giving way to scattered moderate convection across the central Gulf from 23N-28N between 85W-91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen right off the coast of Mississippi and Alabama. Some convective activity along northeast Mexico is also moving into the western Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are seen across the basin. The stationary front will linger across the north Gulf through Thursday, then dissipate. A second front will move into the northern Gulf Friday and stall, then lift north of the area through Saturday. Winds will increase in the western Gulf as high pressure builds across the area through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The only significant convective activity in the Caribbean is confined to the SW portion of the basin near the tropical wave. See the Tropical Wave section for more details. Some isolated thunderstorms are seen 100 nm south of Cuba. The Colombian low is at 1009 mb and is located near 11N76W with the monsoon trough extending to the west of it into southern Panama. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean, with gentle trades in the northwest Caribbean. Strong trades are seen in the west- central Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area will support strong to occasional near gale force trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Saturday, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper Level divergence from the trough digging across the Gulf is bringing another round of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the western Atlantic. A line of thunderstorms is moving off the coast of Florida in addition to thunderstorms seen across the Bahamas. This activity is seen from 23N-31W between 72W-80W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N42W and extends west to 29N54W. A trough is also near the front from 28N51W to 26N56W. Cloudiness and low-topped showers are seen along this front and trough. Two high pressures are analyzed, with a 1023 mb high near 27N47W and a 1022 mb high near 29N39W. Ridging across the Atlantic is bringing tranquil conditions across this portion of the basin. Light to gentle winds are seen in the Atlantic, with moderate easterly winds closer to the Lesser Antilles. High pressure prevailing across the region will shift east through Friday. This will enable a cold front to move off the southeast U.S. coast Thursday night and eastward across the waters north of 30N through Saturday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR