000 AXNT20 KNHC 121655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N41W to 14N39W. This feature has no significant convection currently associated with it. Satellite imagery shows the wave is surrounded by SAL air. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N60W to 15N58W. This feature also has no significant convection currently associated with it. TPW satellite imagery and the Barbados 12Z sounding show convection in the vicinity of the wave is inhibited by a mid-level layer of dry air. In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave has an axis extending from 07N81W to 15N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present in the vicinity of the wave between 07N and 12N between 79W and 85W, mainly along the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11N15W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 12W and 16W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 07N22W to 05N30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches across the Gulf from 1012 mb low pres centered near Apalachicola Florida Panhandle to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. An upper level trough reaches SW from central Texas to the Mexican State of Durango. Upper-level divergence on the E side of this trough has induced a surface trough extending from 26N97W to 1012 mb low pres centered near 27N97W to 28N96W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with these features is occurring over the NW Gulf W of a line from 30N90W to 24N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found over the NE Gulf along and up to 150 nm SE of the stationary front N of 26N. A relatively light wind regime is currently in place over the basin with light to gentle winds prevailing. The stationary front will linger over the northern Gulf through Thu, then dissipate Fri. Winds will increase over the western Gulf as high pressure shifts W across the SE United States and low pres develops over the plains states. CARIBBEAN SEA... Virtually all of the significant convection over this basin is confined to the vicinity of a tropical wave currently crossing the SW across Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves Section for more details. The monsoon trough crosses the southern Caribbean from SE Costa Rica to 1009 mb low pres near 11N76W to near Lake Maracaibo. The trough is helping to pool deep moisture around the tropical wave. Some isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles. Trades over the eastern and and southwest Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with light to gentle trades in the northwest basin. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Sat, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extending from central Florida to western Cuba is producing upper level divergence over the Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 23N to 27N between 74W and 78W. The trough is expected to weaken and lift out to the NE during the next couple of days and allow this convection to diminish. A nearly stationary boundary extends WSW from 32N40W to 28N53W. Cloudiness and low topped showers are seen within 45 nm of the front. The front is expected to begin moving SE later today and continue doing so for the next couple of days as high pres builds to the N of the boundary. Otherwise, surface ridging curving SW from near the Azores to Bermuda is maintaining light to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S of 25N between 25W and 60W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri, then stall and weaken north of the Bahamas Fri and Sat. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop N of 28N and W of 76W ahead of the front tonight and Thu, then diminish as the front weakens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM