000 AXNT20 KNHC 121045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W S of 13N. Light showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W S of 15N. Light showers are noted near the coast of Guyana. No significant convection is seen north of 07N. In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave is along 79W S of 17N. Some scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of the wave, mainly south of 11N and extends to the coast of Colombia and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 08N-10N between 13W-14W. Scattered showers are also noted along the monsoon trough from 04N-07N between 20W-25W. There are some thunderstorms near the Brazilian coast interacting with the ITCZ near 00N between 47W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is seen stretching across the Gulf, from the Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico, near 30N84W to 25N97W. An upper level trough is digging across Texas, which is providing some upper level divergence along western Gulf coast. This is fueling scattered moderate convection along the TX and northeast coast of Mexico. Another upper level trough is situated across the central and eastern Gulf, which is enhancing scattered thunderstorm along the eastern Gulf waters and the FL Peninsula, mainly from 25N-29N west of 84W. A surface trough extends from 24N89W into the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are seen south of 22N. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate and out of the southwest. In the central Gulf, winds are generally light to gentle. In the northwestern Gulf, post-frontal winds are out of the northeast and are generally gentle. A stationary front from the Florida Big Bend to Brownsville Texas will linger across the northern Gulf through Thu, then dissipate. Winds will increase in the western Gulf as high pressure builds across the area by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper level trough digging across the eastern Gulf extends into the NW Caribbean, with an upper level ridge dominating the rest of the Caribbean. This is creating an environment favorable for convection to fire off in the northern and western Caribbean, mainly west of 73W including Cuba, Jamaica, and the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. However, the monsoon trough is extending in the southern Caribbean from Panama to Colombia and is producing scattered moderate strong convection moving into the basin, mostly south of 10N and between 75W-78W. Some isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles. Trades over the eastern and and southwest Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with light to gentle trades in the northwest basin. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Sat, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Most of the scattered shower activity occurring over the western Atlantic is associated to upper level divergence from the digging trough over the eastern Gulf. This scattered showers extend from the Caribbean across Cuba, Bahamas and western Atlantic waters west of 73W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front continues to press southward and enters the waters near 31N42W and stretches to near 28N55W. The front then stalls from 28N55W to the north to 31N58W in which the boundary continues northward toward the New England coast. Light showers are seen along the front but otherwise no significant convection is occurring with this feature. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin from a 1030 mb high north of 49N with tranquil conditions. Fresh southerly winds are expected east of northern Florida tonight. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri, then stall and weaken north of the Bahamas Fri and Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres