000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 738 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W S of 16N. Light showers are from 04N to 10N between 30W and 35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 16N. No significant convection is associated with this feature. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W S of 13N. Some significant convection is seen to the east of the trough which is also interacting with the monsoon trough from 10N-12N between 73W-75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W to 03N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving along the monsoon trough from 06N-10N between 17W-22W. There are some thunderstorms near the Brazilian coast interacting with the ITCZ south of 00N and west of 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slowing cold front is seen stretching across the Gulf, from the Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico, near 30N84W to 26N976W. A digging upper level trough is digging across the eastern Gulf, providing upper level divergence. This is fueling thunderstorms across the central and eastern Gulf as well as Florida. Thunderstorms are also seen coming off of Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf, as well as the northern Yucatan moving into the south-central basin. Most of the convective activity is east of 89W. Another digging mid-level trough is seen moving across east Texas. This is giving way to producing showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Texas coast with some of this activity is moving into the Gulf. Showers can also be seen along the cold front. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate and out of the southwest. In the central Gulf, winds are generally light to gentle. In the northwestern Gulf, post-frontal winds are out of the northeast and are generally gentle. The cold front extending across the Gulf will stall and linger as a stationary front near the northern Gulf coast through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper level trough digging across the eastern Gulf is extending into the northern Caribbean, with an upper level ridge dominating the rest of the Caribbean. This is creating an environment favorable for convection to fire off in the northern and western Caribbean, most of which is still over land. However, the monsoon trough is extending in the southern Caribbean from Panama to Colombia and is producing scattered moderate to strong convection moving into the basin, mostly south of 12N and between 73W-82W. Isolated showers are moving across Puerto Rico to the Lesser Antilles. Trades over the eastern and and southwest Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with light to gentle trades in the northwest basin. Weak high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean through Saturday night, with moderate to locally fresh trades across the rest of the Caribbean for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Most of the activity is occurring over the western Atlantic as upper level divergence from the digging trough over the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N to 30N and west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front continues to press southward and enters the waters near 31N48W and stretches to near 29N57W. The front then stalls from 29N57W and stretches to the north to 31N59W in which the boundary continues northward toward the New England coast. Light showers are seen along the front but otherwise no significant convection is occurring with this feature. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin from a 1030 mb high near 43N23W with tranquil conditions. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Friday, then stall and weaken just N of the Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. Fresh winds could become locally strong each night along the N coast of Hispaniola Thursday night through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR