000 AXNT20 KNHC 111711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 111 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 12N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 29W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 14N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 45W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 15N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate rainshowers are inland, in parts of NW Venezuela and N Colombia. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N27W. The ITCZ continues from 06N27W to 05N33W and 03N39W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 16W and 19W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 12W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the remainder of the area from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, extends from the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Gulf of Honduras and central Honduras. A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. The front becomes stationary in northern Mexico, and it continues as stationary across Mexico, into Arizona. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico. The comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation is from 24N northward from 93W westward, off the coast of Texas and NE Mexico. The current cold front will stall today, and then linger as a stationary front near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday night. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, extends from the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Gulf of Honduras and central Honduras. The upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the north and west of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. Rainshowers are possible from 14N northward from 80W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, to the east of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 30N29W cyclonic circulation center, to 23N44W cyclonic circulation center, to a 22N65W cyclonic circulation center. The trough continues toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent at this moment. The monsoon trough passes through northern Colombia, to eastern Panama, and westward, beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, in two separate areas, are from 13N southward from 77W westward. Some areas of warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation are present also, elsewhere, from 14N southward, from 77W westward. Weak high pressure to the north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras on Thursday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 30N29W cyclonic circulation center, to 23N44W cyclonic circulation center, to a 22N65W cyclonic circulation center. The trough continues toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba and Hispaniola, and 20N, northward from to 25N from 64W westward. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area that is from 20N northward from 50W westward. A cold front enters the north central part of the area, through 32N48W to 29N57W and 31N62W. The front becomes stationary from 31N62W beyond 32N63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that runs from 26N60W to 26N50W, beyond 32N40W. One surface ridge passes through 32N30W to 27N39W, to 23N51W. A second surface ridge extends from 29N65W, to the Bahamas. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Friday. The front will stall and weaken just N of the Bahamas on Friday night and Saturday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop N of the Bahamas on Wednesday night and Thursday. It is possible that fresh winds may become locally strong each night along the N coast of Hispaniola, from Thursday night through Saturday night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the remaining forecast area through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT