000 AXNT20 KNHC 111001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W S of 09N and is moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity of this feature, but no significant convection is seen at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave is seen along 48W S of 09N and is moving west around 20 kt. Light showers are seen near this feature and along the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W S of 13N and is moving west 15 kt. Scattered convection is seen in central Venezuela near this feature. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W S of 12N into Costa Rica and the East Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the western Caribbean from 10N-12N between 79W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 04N47W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N49W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of Africa from 06N-09N between 13W-17W and more scattered showers along the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southwestward and enters the forecast area from the FL Panhandle near 30N86W to South Padre Island, Texas near 26N97W. The weak front continues across South Texas into Mexico as a stationary front. Upper level disturbance is currently digging across the northeast Gulf/north Florida and providing upper level divergence to give way to scattered moderate convection across the eastern Gulf east of 92W. A surface trough extends from 29N84W to 25N89W. Scattered showers are noted near the vicinity of the trough and the cold front 100 nm northwest. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are seen. In the western Gulf, light to gentle northerly winds are seen and veering to the west in the northwest and central Gulf. A surface trough is also present across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche from 20N south between 91W-93W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front during the overnight hours. A cold front from the Florida panhandle to southern Texas will stall and weaken this morning, then linger as a stationary front in the northern Gulf through Thu. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into Hispaniola and Puerto Rico giving way to upper level divergence, with anticyclonic flow to the north of the Greater Antilles bringing moist southeasterly flow. This is bringing moderate to strong convection north of Cuba and in the Bahamas. A few showers are also extend across the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is noted across Panama and Costa Rica due to the proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere, isolated showers are possible along the central Caribbean but no significant strong convection is noted with this activity at this time. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen in the eastern and southern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western basin. Weak high pressure north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is seen moving across the central Atlantic, with an upper level ridge to the west of it. This is helping the upper level trough over the northeast Gulf to dig across the area, giving way to upper level divergence across the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is seen in this area moving off of Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas and off the Florida coast. Most of this activity is south of 26N and west of 68W. A surface trough is extending from western Hispaniola into the Atlantic, from 18N73W to 23N70W. Surface ridging from a 1030 mb high pressure near 44N32W is seen across the rest of the basin with tranquil conditions. Near-gale conditions are expected by Agadir, E of 30W over the next few days. See Meteo-France for more detailed information on this. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop ahead of the front Wed night and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the remaining forecast area through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres