000 AXNT20 KNHC 110602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W S of 09N and is moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity of this feature, but no significant convection is seen at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave is seen along 48W S of 09N and is moving west around 20 kt. Light showers are seen near this feature and along the ITCZ, from 02N-07N between 47W-49W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W S of 12N and is moving west 10 kt. Scattered convection is seen in central Venezuela near this feature. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W S of 12N into Panama and the East Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the western Caribbean from 10N-12N between 78W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 04N47W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N49W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is moving of from 05N- 09N between 13W-18W off the coast of Africa and more scattered shower activity along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low in the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W has weak cold front extending southwestward to 25N87W. An upper level disturbance is currently digging across the northeast Gulf/north Florida and providing upper level divergence to give way to scattered moderate convection across the eastern Gulf east of 92W. There is another cold front which enters the northern Gulf near 30N88W to 28N95W, then crosses south Texas into northern Mexico as a stationary front. The most significant convection is over land. There is also scattered showers along the boundary. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are seen. In the western Gulf, light to gentle northerly winds are seen and veering to the west in the northwest and central Gulf. A cold front entering the NW Gulf will merge with another weak cold front located over the NE Gulf tonight into Tue. The merged front will linger across the northern Gulf waters through Thu night and lift N as a warm front Fri and Fri night. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into Hispaniola and Puerto Rico giving way to upper level divergence, with anticyclonic flow to the north of the Greater Antilles bringing moist southeasterly flow. This is bringing strong convection across Cuba and Hispaniola and scattered showers over Puerto Rico. There are isolated thunderstorms seen north of 18N and east of 77W, between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen in the eastern and southern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western basin. Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south-central Caribbean through Sat night, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is seen moving across the central Atlantic, with an upper level ridge to the west of it. This is helping the upper level trough over the northeast Gulf to dig across the area, giving way to upper level divergence across the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving off of Cuba and Hispaniola across the Bahamas and off the Florida coast. Most of this activity is south of 26N and west of 68W. A surface trough is extending from western Hispaniola into the Atlantic, from 18N73W to 23N70W. Surface ridging from a 1032 mb high pressure near 39N24W is seen across the rest of the basin with tranquil conditions. Near-gale conditions are expected by Agadir, E of 30W over the next few days. See Meteo-France for more detailed information on this. A ridge will dominate the forecast waters most of the forecast period. A cold front will move off the SE United States Fri, clipping the waters off NE Florida. Fresh SW winds will develop over the far NW waters Wed night then diminish to moderate Thu. Elsewhere over the area, gentle to moderate southerly winds will generally prevail, except for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N and E of 78W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres