000 AXNT20 KNHC 102343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 743 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W S of 13N and is moving west around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity of this feature, mostly from 03N-06N between 24W-27W, but no significant convection at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is seen along 47W S of 10N and is moving west around 20 kt. Light showers are seen near this feature and along the ITCZ, from 03N-05N between 45W-47W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W S of 15N and is moving west 10 kt. Isolated convection is seen in central Venezuela near this feature from 07N-09N between 64W-67W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W S of 15N into Panama and the East Pacific Ocean.Scattered moderate convection is seen in the western Caribbean from 09N-13N between 81W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to 07N40W to 04N47W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N48W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 06N-10N between 12N-20N. There are scattered showers seen along the ITCZ but no significant convection at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low in the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W has a stationary front extending southwestward to 28N89W. An upper level disturbance is currently digging across the northeast Gulf/north Florida and providing upper level divergence to give way to scattered moderate convection across the eastern Gulf east of 92W. The most significant convection is over land. There is also convection occurring in northern Mexico/deep south Texas. Some of this activity is moving into the Gulf, mostly from 24N-27N and west of 95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the northwestern Gulf and central Gulf. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are seen. In the western Gulf, light to gentle northerly winds are seen and veering to the west in the central Gulf. A front off the Southeast coast will will linger in this area through Thursday night and lift N as a warm front Friday and Friday night. An upper- level trough will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over NE Gulf for the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into Hispaniola and Puerto Rico giving way to upper level divergence, with anticyclonic flow to the north of the Greater Antilles bringing moist southeasterly flow. This is bringing strong convection across Cuba and Hispaniola and scattered showers over Puerto Rico. There are isolated thunderstorms seen north of 18N and east of 83W, between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western basin. Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south-central Caribbean through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is seen moving across the central Atlantic, with an upper level ridge to the west of it. This is helping the upper level trough over the northeast Gulf to dig across the area, giving way to upper level divergence across the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving off of Cuba and Hispaniola across the Bahamas and off the Florida coast. Most of this activity is south of 30N and west of 70W. A surface trough is extending from western Hispaniola into the Atlantic, from 20N72W to 24N71W. Surface ridging from a 1030 mb high pressure near 39N25W is seen across the rest of the basin with tranquil conditions. Near-gale conditions are expected by Agadir, E of 30W over the next few days. See Meteo-France for more detailed information on this. A ridge extending to the Straits of Florida will lift N on Friday to near 30N. A cold front will move off the SE United States Friday. Fresh SW winds will develop over the far NW waters Wed night then diminish to moderate Thursday. Elsewhere over the area, gentle to moderate southerly winds will generally prevail, except for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N and E of 78W. A moist and unstable airmass will support scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR