000 AXNT20 KNHC 101743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 14N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between Africa and 25W. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains 07N, at the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and 13N in SW Senegal. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 14N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 40W and 46W, also partly mixed with ITCZ precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 16N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward between 60W and 69W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W from 15N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 06N23W and 06N39W, and from 05N43W to 05N50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in general, away from the tropical waves, are from 02N to 07N between 25W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 07N between 47W and 55W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1012 mb Florida Panhandle low pressure center, into the N central/NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes dissipating stationary 28N87W, westward, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 88W eastward. The same precipitation is occurring in Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida, from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward, with a trough. The current frontal boundary will linger through Thursday night, and it will move northward as a warm front on Friday and Friday night. An upper level trough will support scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf for the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 22N66W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and to the south of the line that runs from 18N60W to 15N70W to NE Nicaragua. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday night. East winds in the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong at night, from Wednesday through Friday. Rather weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds, elsewhere, across most of the Caribbean Sea during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 30N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N44W, to 24N59W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N66W. The trough continues beyond Hispaniola and Puerto Rico toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba and Hispaniola, and 20N, northward from 55W westward. A surface ridge extends from near a 1031 mb high pressure center that is near 37N26W, through 32N33W, to 28N47W, 28N59W, 27N73W, beyond the NW Bahamas. The current surface ridge will move northward on Friday to near 30N. A cold front will move off the SE United States on Friday. Fresh SW winds will develop in the far NW waters on Wednesday night, and then diminish to moderate winds on Thursday. Gentle to moderate S winds generally will prevail elsewhere, EXCEPT for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N and E of 78W. A moist and unstable airmass will support scattered rainshowers with thunder for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt