000 AXNT20 KNHC 092324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W from 01N-14N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery and in the model diagnostic data. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 13W-20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 01N-14N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up in long-loop satellite imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 03N-15N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-15N between 57W-65W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 02N-14N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 13N15W to 07N20W to 05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 05N34W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N37W to the coast of Brazil 02N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 07N between 24W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to the NE Gulf near 29N88W to Texas near 29N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is in the warm section over the NE Gulf and Florida N of 25N and E of 88W. Of note in the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf and Florida enhancing convection. The stationary front will be reinforced by another cold front moving across the NW Gulf Mon and Mon night. The merged front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by Mon night, then become stationary and weaken over the northern Gulf Tue through Wed night. Fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front before diminishing to mainly gentle winds Tue. A weak cold front will move across the north-central Gulf on Wed and across the NE Gulf Wed night into Thu and become stationary by late Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the south central Caribbean, and weakest winds over the far SW Caribbean. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland from Guatemala to Panama. Similar convection is inland over Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south central Caribbean through Thu night along with building seas, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia where near gale force winds will occur late tonight and early Mon morning. Strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, a weak ridge N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic, to include the N Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. A large 1031 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 37N30W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 23N65W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. Another upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 28N42W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of this center. A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic and the Bahamas over the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds N of 22N, and an E to SE wind flow S of 22N, with seas generally under 6 ft. A moist airmass will remain overhead and support unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa