295 AXNT20 KNHC 091036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is partially over Africa along 14W from 01N-12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery and in the model diagnostic data. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 12W-18W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 01N-15N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is well-established in model diagnostic data. Scattered moderate convection is from 02.5N-07N between 30W-38W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 01N-14N, moving W at 15 kt. A maximum in total precipitable water is seen along and just west of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 51W-56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 02N-15N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in between the wave axis and the Windward Islands, mainly southeast of a line extending from Antigua to Curacao. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 08N18W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N36W to 05N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 19W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm S and 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 38W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... The map analysis at 09/0900 UTC shows a cold front extending from a 1008 mb surface low over SW Alabama near 31N88W to 29N90W. The front continues as stationary to a 1009 mb low near Galveston Bay. Mid-upper level troughing is over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the E Gulf of Mexico, E of 87W and over portions of Florida. The storms are being enhanced by upper- level diffluence. The remainder of the Gulf is quieter due to drier air over the W Gulf. Gentle winds cover most of the Gulf, based on the latest ASCAT pass from Saturday night. The combination of broad low pressure slowly moving eastward over the southern U.S. and weak high pressure over the far southeastern Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh southwest to west winds across the NE and north-central Gulf through Monday. A stationary front extending from near Mobile to inland southern Texas will weaken in the north-central Gulf today. A cold front will move across the NW Gulf Monday and Monday night, then become stationary and weaken over the northern Gulf Tuesday through Wednesday night. Fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front before diminishing to mainly gentle winds Tuesday. A third weak cold front will move across the north-central Gulf on Wed and across the NE Gulf Wed night into Thu and become stationary by late Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The ASCAT pass from Saturday night indicates that fresh trades cover most of the central Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Strong winds are seen in the south-central Caribbean south of 14.5N between 72W-76W. Moderate winds are over the E and NW Caribbean. Upper-level troughing over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico emanates from an upper-level low north of Puerto Rico. This feature is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms near and over those islands. In the SW Caribbean, scattered tstorms associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough are offshore of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, mainly west of a line from 10N76W to 15N83W. The SE Caribbean is covered with scattered showers between the Windward Islands and the tropical wave along 69W. The weather is relatively quiet for much of the central and NW Caribbean. A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the south- central Caribbean through Thursday night along with building seas. The exception will be within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia where near gale force winds are expected from late tonight to around daybreak on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper-level diffluence that is producing convection in the NE Gulf and over Florida, mentioned above, is also causing scattered showers and tstorms over the western Atlantic from the NW Bahamas northward between 75W-80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also noted over the Old Bahama Channel and near the remainder of the Bahamas. An upper-level trough extending from 23N64W to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola continues to produce scattered thunderstorms from 19N-27N between 60W-73W. The remainder of the basin east of 60W is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 37N34W. A high pressure ridge extending into the area from near 28N65W and southwestward to the Straits of Florida will change little through the upcoming week as broad low pressure over the southern United States slowly moves east-southeast. These features will generally maintain gentle to moderate southerly winds over the area, along with unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen