000 AXNT20 KNHC 081039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is added to the analysis at 0600 UTC along 26W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 25W-33W. The wave is analyzed close to where a 700 mb trough is diagnosed by the computer models. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 49W from 13N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly south of 04N between 42W-51W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving through the Lesser Antilles with axis along 63W from 15N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Total precipitable water images indicate a moist environment around the wave. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are S of 14N between 56W-66WW. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near 10N14W and continues to 07N21W. The ITCZ begins near 07N21W to 07N24W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N28W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are noted near and south of the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between the west coast of Africa and 18W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N and 240 nm S of the ITCZ between 33W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1006 mb low over SW Louisiana near 30N93W to 29N94.5W to near Port O'Connor Texas near 28N96W and inland to the Texas/Mexico border near 29N100.5W. At 0900 UTC, the front is analyzed as a stationary front. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 27.5N-29N between 90W-95W. Over the NE Gulf of Mexico, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 27.5N east of 88W. Latest ASCAT and surface observations show fresh SW winds over the NE to north-central Gulf. The southern two-thirds of the Gulf is experiencing quieter weather than the northern Gulf, with only an isolated shower or tstorm near the lower Florida Keys and Florida Bay. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the southeastern Gulf and broad low pressure over the southern U.S. will maintain moderate to locally fresh southwest to west winds across the NE and north-central Gulf waters through early Sunday evening. A weak front over the NW Gulf of Mexico early this morning will reach the north-central Gulf tonight, then stall and weaken to a trough by Sunday afternoon. A slightly stronger cold front will move across the NW Gulf Monday, then weaken across the northern Gulf Tuesday through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging prevails across the western Caribbean, leading to relatively quiet weather north of 14N west of 80W. The quiet weather extends into the central Caribbean from 14N-17N between 70W-80W. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is providing scattered showers and isolated tstorms south of 12.5N between 71W-84W. An upper-level trough axis extends from an upper-low near 26N64W to the Virgin Islands to the NW coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from eastern Cuba eastward through the northern coast of Hispaniola. Farther southeast, broken multi-layered clouds along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover the southeastern Caribbean Sea, SE of a line from 20N61W to 13.5N70W, including the Windward and Leeward Islands, ABC Islands and Trinidad. Latest ASCAT shows moderate trades across much of the basin, with fresh E winds in the south-central Caribbean. A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will begin over the south- central Caribbean tonight through Wed night along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley continues to spread scattered showers and isolated tstorms over northern Florida and the western Atlantic to the east of Florida, mainly west of 75W and north of 27N. More isolated activity is seen near the NW Bahamas and South Florida. An upper level low near 26N64W extends an upper level trough axis across the Virgin Islands into the east-central Caribbean. This trough is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 20N-26N between 62W-72W. Some of these storms contain frequent lightning. A surface trough extends from 32N65W to 30N66W. Isolated showers are seen between 90-180 nm E of the trough. Ridging dominates the remainder of the basin east of 60W, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 37N37W. High pressure ridging will remain over the southern part of the area through the period, while low pressure remains over the southeastern U.S. Mainly moderate southerly winds will be across the area through the next few days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area well into next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen