000 AXNT20 KNHC 080004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01S45W to 12N45W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and strong wind shear, which is limiting the convection to isolated showers from 02S to 08N between 39W and 47W. A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 02S59W to 13N59W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in an abundant low to middle level moist environment that along with divergent flow aloft support scattered showers S of 14N between 50W and 60W. A tropical wave is moving across Honduras and Belize. The wave axis extends S of 17N into the EPAC waters and it moves W at 20 kt. No convective activity is associated with this wave over Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near 08N13W and continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ begins near 06N19W and then continues along 06N30W to 06N44W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Southerly to southwesterly gentle to moderate wind flow continue to advect moisture to the northeast Gulf of Mexico where divergent flow aloft supports scattered showers and isolated tstms. This moisture also continue to feed an area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley, which associated cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast early Sat, then stall across the north-central Gulf by Sat night. A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon, then weaken in the northern Gulf on Tue. These features will support the continuation of showers and tstms in the NE and E basin through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant low to middle level moisture across the Caribbean along with middle level diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers and tstms in Cuba and Hispaniola as well as adjacent southern waters. Similar convection prevails in the SW Caribbean S of 13.5N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough, which crosses through Costa Rica into northern Colombia. Otherwise, isolated showers are happening across portions of the Lesser Antilles as a tropical wave moves across the area and into inland Venezuela. Otherwise, a weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds for most of the Caribbean the next few days. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south- central Caribbean Sat night through Wed night, with seas building to 9 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Showers and tstms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley continue to spread over the SW N Atlc waters west of 69W. Just to the east and N of Puerto Rico, a middle to upper level low supports a 1013 mb low near 30N64W and associated trough extending SW from the low to 27N67W. Scattered showers and tstms are N of Puerto Rico from 20N to 27N between 60W and 69W and within 240 nm NE of the low. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high west of the Azores Islands. The area of low pressure NE of the Bahamas will lift northward today, and pass near Bermuda overnight. High pressure will build across the region tonight through Sun. Most seas will remain less than 4 ft through Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos