000 AXNT20 KNHC 071045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 02N45W to 10N43W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave remains in a hostile environment, including dry air and strong wind shear. This limits the convection associated with it. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 05N57W to 13N56W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a similar environment than the wave above. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N-10N between 52W-58W. A tropical wave is over Central America and extending into the western Caribbean with axis extending from 10N85W to 18N85W, moving west at 15-20 kt. No convective activity is associated with this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the Sierra Leone coast near 09N13W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and continues to 06N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N44W to the coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N-09N between 10W-26W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from 06N-07N between 30W-40W and 47W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Most of the convective activity has finally dissipated across the northwestern Gulf. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across the central and eastern Gulf, east of 90W as moderate to fresh southwesterly winds bring abundant moisture from the Gulf into the southeastern U.S. Fresh southerly winds are also seen north of the Yucatan. Persistent low pressure over the SE United States will maintain moderate to fresh SW to W flow over the NE Gulf of Mexico into early next week. A cold front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight, then move across the north-central Gulf through the weekend. A second cold front will move SE into the NW Gulf on Monday and cross the north-central Gulf through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level trough continues to dig across the northeastern Caribbean with a weakening upper level ridge over the northwestern portion of the basin. The only convective activity seen in the northern Caribbean is isolated thunderstorms lingering within the Windward Passage near Hispaniola. Isolated showers are also seen across Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The most active part of the basin remains in the southern Caribbean due to the monsoon trough. An area of scattered strong convection is seen near the coast of Colombia from 09N-13N between 75W-81W. Otherwise, trades across the central and western Caribbean remain moderate to fresh with light to gentle winds in the eastern basin. A high pressure ridge north of the region will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across much of the area during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop along the coast of Colombia Saturday night and persist through Tuesday night, with seas building to 9 ft early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level short-wave trough in the central Atlantic continues to support a surface trough from 23N70W to 30N63W, with a 1014 mb low that has developed along the trough near 28N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near this trough from 21N- 30N between 59W-69W. Abundant moisture across the NE Gulf of Mexico and divergent flow aloft continues to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas north of 24N and west of 77W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high near 38N40W. The weak low pressure along the surface trough north of Puerto Rico will lift northward and pass near Bermuda tonight. High pressure will build westward across the region in the wake of this low and persist through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR