000 AXNT20 KNHC 070549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 00N39W to 10N39W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave remains in a hostile environment, including dry air and strong wind shear. This limits the convection to isolated showers from 05N-07N between 39W-42W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 02N56W to 12N55W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a similar environment than the wave above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 08N-10N between 54W-56W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from 05N81W to 15N80W, moving west at 5 kt. The wave is in a moderate wind shear environment and is in a region of abundant low to middle level moisture according to both the LPW and TPW imagery. This along with proximity to the monsoon trough support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N between 77W-81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the Guinea coast near 11N15W and continues to 08N24W. The ITCZ begins near 08N24W and continues to 06N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N42W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ. There are also scattered thunderstorms moving off the west African coastline from 06N-09N between 11W- 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level divergence along with abundant moisture feeding in from the Gulf of Mexico continues to aid in additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms especially across the northwestern Gulf. Thunderstorms are mostly confined to the South Texas coast between Corpus Christi and Brownsville with showers moving off the southeast Texas coast. This activity is seen north of 27N and west of 93W. There are also isolated showers seen in the central and eastern Gulf. Winds are gentle to moderate across the basin out of the south-southwest. Moderate east winds are seen north of the Yucatan. A low pressure area over Louisiana will move further inland and meander over the SE of United States through early next week, keeping a SW to W flow across the northern Gulf waters. The associated cold front will reach the coast of Texas by Friday night and will move across the north-central Gulf during the upcoming weekend. A second cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf on Monday, reaching the north-central Gulf by Monday night into Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level trough continues to dig across the northeastern Caribbean with a weakening upper level ridge over the northwestern portion of the basin. The convective activity seen across Cuba and Hispaniola has entered adjacent waters but is isolated. There are also isolated showers across Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. The most active part of the basin remains off the coast of Panama and Costa Rica due to the tropical wave and monsoon trough. See the tropical wave section for more details. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are seen in the east-central basin and north of Honduras, with gentle trades elsewhere across the Caribbean. Expect fresh to strong trade winds along the coast of Colombia Saturday night through Tuesday night, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft. Elsewhere, a weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level short-wave trough in the central Atlantic continues to support a surface trough from 22N69W to 28N63W, which is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 22N-30N between 62W-65W. Abundant moisture across the NE Gulf of Mexico and divergent flow aloft continues to fuel showers and thunderstorms off the Florida coast north of 29N and west of 77W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high near 38N40W. A weak surface trough persists north of Puerto Rico. A weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the trough axis early on Friday. This system will move northward, approaching Bermuda by late Friday. High pressure will build westward across the area in the wake of the trough/low. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR