000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01S36W to 10N35W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave remains in a hostile environment, including dry air and strong wind shear. This limits the convection to isolated showers from 01S to 10N between 30W and 40W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 02N54W to 13N53W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a similar environment than the wave above. Isolated showers are from 07N to 11N between 48W and 55W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from 07N78W to 16N80W, moving west at 5 kt. The wave is in a moderate wind shear environment and is in a region of abundant low to middle level moisture according to both the LPW and TPW imagery. This along with proximity to the monsoon trough support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 12N between 73W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the West African coast near 10N15W and continues to 08N23W. The ITCZ begins near 08N23W and continues to 06N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N38W to 05N49W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... The low level precipitable water imagery show a continual inflow of abundant moisture from the EPAC into the western and northeast Gulf of Mexico. This moisture is feeding a broad area of low pressure located between Mississippi and Louisiana. To the east, middle to upper level divergence support scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 26N E of 89W. Surface observations show southwest winds up to 30 kt in the area of convection between Alabama and SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from the area of low pressure into the NW basin along 29N91W to 27N95W, however there is no convection associated with it. The area of low pressure over Louisiana/Mississippi will meander over the SE CONUS through the weekend, thus keeping the winds from the S and SW across the northern Gulf waters. A cold front will extend from the low and reach the coast of Texas Fri night, and move across the northern Gulf over the upcoming weekend. Fresh S to SW winds are expected over the NE Gulf through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for a portion of the SE Caribbean where dry air intrusion is noted in the low level precipitable water imagery, abundant low to middle level moisture is in the remainder basin. This moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow across the northern Caribbean continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms along Cuba and Hispaniola and adjacent southern waters. A tropical wave over the western basin is embedded in the EPAC monsoon trough, which supports scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 12N between 75W and 82W. Expect fresh to strong trade winds along the coast of Colombia from Saturday night through Tue night. Elsewhere, a weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the SW N Atlc continues to support a surface trough from 20N69W to 27N64W, which continue to generate scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 57W and 65W. Abundant moisture across the NE Gulf of Mexico and divergent flow aloft support a broad area of showers and isolated tstms that extends across portions of Florida and adjacent coastal waters. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high west of the Azores Islands. A weak inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will drift northward through late Fri. A weak low pressure may form along the trough axis approaching Bermuda by late Fri. High pressure will build westward across the area in the wake of the trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos