000 AXNT20 KNHC 061805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending from 08N35W to 00N36W moving west around 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and in a strong shear environment, which is prohibiting the development of strong convection. There is some scattered showers seen from 04N-07N between 33W-37W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending from 12N51W to 02N52W moving west around 10 kt. Saharan Air Layer and strong wind shear are present in the wave environment limiting strong convection. There is some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms seen from 06N-10N between 49W-54W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 19N79W to 09N78W moving west around 5 kt. The low level precipitable water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which along with strong wind shear is limiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 06N24W. The ITCZ begins at that point and continues to 04N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 03N38W to 03N49W. Aside to the convection activity near the tropical waves, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 06N-09N between 16W-22W, and from 03N-07N between 25W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture seen west of 89W on the TPW, a 1014mb surface low along the Texas/Louisiana border near 31N92W, and upper level divergence is fueling moderate to strong convection along the Central Gulf Coast extending south to 28N92W. A surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf from 29N92W to 27N96W. The convective activity is moving across the northwest Gulf producing flash flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds up to 30 kt reported by buoys 50 nm off the central Louisiana coast. There are also thunderstorms moving off Alabama and western Florida Panhandle and making its way into the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen off the southwest Florida coast near Naples. There is a trough seen in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 19N93W. Aside from the convective activity U.S. Gulf coastline, the basin remains quiet. Gentle southerly winds are seen in in the eastern portion of the basin. In the northwestern Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly winds are seen. The Bay of Campeche remains quiet with light to gentle east-southeasterly winds. A low pressure center in Louisiana will move NE during the next few days. A trough will remain, from Mississippi to Louisiana to the Texas Gulf coast. The winds will be from the SW, in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, until at least Saturday. A cold front will reach the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. Expect fresh to strong winds in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half of the Caribbean which is keeping conditions fair. The eastern half of the Caribbean is under the influence of a digging middle to upper level trough. This is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms In southern Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. The East Pacific monsoon trough is seen extending from a 1009 mb low pressure in Colombia and south of Panama with scattered moderate isolated strong convection. The convection extends into the Caribbean from 08N-12N between 74W- 77W. The trades in the southern Caribbean are moderate, with the rest of the Caribbean seeing light to gentle winds. A trough is seen in the Gulf of Honduras with no significant convection noted along the trough. Expect fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia starting on Saturday night, until the end of the period. A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the region through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough continues to dig across the western Atlantic while extending south to the eastern Caribbean. This is supporting a surface trough from 27N64W to north of Hispaniola near 20N69W. Upper level divergence along with influence from the surface trough is fueling scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 20N-31N between 58W-68W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high near 38N39W with fair conditions prevailing. A weak inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere through the period. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres