000 AXNT20 KNHC 061044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending from 08N35W to 01N35W moving west around 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and in a strong shear environment, which is prohibiting the development of strong convection. There is some scattered showers seen from 07N-04N between 33W-36W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending from 12N51W to 02N52W moving west around 10 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong wind shear are present in the wave environment limiting strong convection. There is some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms seen from 09N-06N between 49W- 53W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 20N78W to 10N79W moving west around 5 kt. The low level precipitable water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which along with strong wind shear is limiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 07N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N25W and continues to 04N35W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 03N36W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 09N-06N between 22W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the monsoon trough from 07N-05N between 29W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture seen west of 92W on the TPW, a 1005 mb surface low along the Texas/Louisiana border near 30N94W, and upper level divergence is fueling moderate to strong convection along the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. This convective activity is moving across the northwest Gulf, from west of 92W and north of 28N to the Gulf coastlines. These storms are producing frequent lightning and gusty winds up to 30 kt reported by buoys 45 nm off the central Louisiana coast. There are also thunderstorms moving off Alabama and western Florida Panhandle and making its way into the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen off the southwest Florida coast near Naples. There is a trough seen in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 19N92W. Another surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Gulf along 84W from 30N-28N. Aside from the convective activity U.S. Gulf coastline, the basin remains quiet. Gentle southerly winds are seen in in the eastern portion of the basin. In the northwestern Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly winds are seen. The Bay of Campeche remains quiet with light to gentle east- southeasterly winds. As the low pressure system along the Texas/Louisiana border moves farther inland today, anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will continue to produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the central and eastern Gulf coast region. It will then weaken and linger as a trough across Mississippi and Alabama the next few days, with winds becoming west- southwesterly in the northern half of the basin through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half of the Caribbean which is keeping conditions fair. The eastern half of the Caribbean is under the influence of a digging middle to upper level trough. This is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. The East Pacific monsoon trough is seen along Panama with numerous strong convection associated with it. This is moving across the southern Caribbean from 11N-09N between 76W-83W. The trades in the southern Caribbean are moderate, with the rest of the Caribbean seeing light to gentle winds. A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the region through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough continues to dig across the western Atlantic while extending south to the eastern Caribbean. This is supporting a surface trough from 27N63W to 19N68W. Upper level divergence along with influence from the surface trough is fueling scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 31N- 20N between 60W- 68W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high near 38N40W with fair conditions prevailing. The inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of the forecast area through Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR