000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01N30W to 10N28W, moving west around 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and it is in a strong shear environment, which is hindering the development of strong convection. Middle level diffluent flow and ITCZ moisture support isolated showers from 02S to 08N between 26W and 38W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 10N48W to 02N49W, moving west around 5 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong wind shear are present in the wave environment, limiting the convection to isolated showers from 0N to 09N between 40W and 54W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending along 65W south of 14N, moving west around 5 kt. The low level precipitable water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which along with strong wind shear limit the convection to isolated showers S of 13N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 18N77W to 09N77W, moving west at 5 kt. This wave is in a strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated with it at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near 10N14W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and continues to 06N26W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N31W to 05N40W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N east of 21W. See tropical waves section for further information about convection. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture along with upper-level divergence continue to support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms over the NW gulf. The strongest convection is currently within 210 nm south of Louisiana. A center of low pressure located along the coast of Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi is also associated with this convection. Latest scatterometer data showed strong to near gale force winds around the low pressure center. However, convection has slightly decreased and winds as well. Latest surface observations show winds up to 25 kt N of 26N W of 91W. Otherwise, light to moderate southeast flow dominate the remainder basin. Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will continue to produce heavy rainfall across the central and northern Gulf through the weekend as this system moves NE. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected elsewhere through Thursday. A ridge will build eastward across the Gulf of Mexico from Thursday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half of the Caribbean, thus keeping conditions fair except for some isolated showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm off the southern coast of Cuba. The eastern half of the Caribbean is under the influence of a middle to upper level trough, which continue to support scattered showers and tstms across Hispaniola. Isolated showers are also possible for portions of the NE Caribbean. Otherwise, a ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extending south to a base over the eastern Caribbean continue to support a surface trough east of the Bahamas. The surface trough extends from 29N65W to 22N68W and fuels scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms N of 22N between 60W and 68W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high W of the Azores Islands. Tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos