775 AXNT20 KNHC 051804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, seen along 27W from 09N south and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are seen with this feature from 01N-07N between 26W-30W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, seen along 47W/48W from 02N-10N moving west around 05 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near this wave from 02N-08N between 46W to the coast of Brazil. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending south along 64W from 05N-14N moving west around 05 kt. Most of the moderate convection associated with this wave is mainly over land across Venezuela. A tropical wave is located in the western Caribbean, extending south along 77W between 11N-19N. Once again, this wave is in a strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W to 05N26W and continues west of a tropical wave near 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 01N-07N between 30W-41W. Isolated convection is also seen near the ITCZ and the Brazilian coast from 02N-01S and west of 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture along with upper-level divergence is fueling scattered to numerous strong convection across the western half of the Gulf, mainly west of 92W. The strongest convection is currently over the southeast and middle Texas coast. However, the ongoing convective activity extends in the northwestern Gulf with lightning associated with it and gusts up to 25-35 kts according to buoys in the area. These thunderstorms are mostly from 22N-28N between 93W-96W. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate SE flow continues across the eastern and central Gulf. A 1017 mb high pressure is located near 28N84W keeping fair weather across the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are seen. Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will produce heavy rainfall across the western and central Gulf coasts in addition to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few days. See Weather Prediction Center and local NWS forecast offices for more information on this. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SE winds, associated with a trough in Mexico, will persist in the NW Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected elsewhere through Thursday. A ridge will build eastward across the Gulf of Mexico from Thursday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging is bringing strong subsidence over the western Caribbean and keeping conditions fair, with isolated thunderstorms passing through the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough continues to be draped across Panama, fueling scattered moderate to strong convection some of which is entering adjacent waters mostly south of 10N along the coast of Colombia to the coast of Costa Rica between 83W-75W. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle trades in the western basin. Moderate to fresh trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the south-central Caribbean through Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends south to the northwest Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture with upper level divergence and fueling scattered moderate convection north of Puerto Rico. A surface trough lingers north of Puerto Rico from 28N67W to 22N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 31N-22N between 63W-68W. Another area of scattered showers are seen in the central Atlantic from 18N-22N between 55W-69W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin from the 1031 mb Azores high near 38N36W and keeping conditions fair. A weak inverted trough to the N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres