000 AXNT20 KNHC 051044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, seen along 28W from 09N-01N and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen with this feature 07N-01N between 24W-30W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, seen along 48W from 10N-02N moving west around 05 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near this wave from 07N-02N between 45W-48W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending south along 64W from 11N-05N moving west around 05 kt. Most of the convection associated with this wave is over land across Venezuela. A tropical wave is located in the western Caribbean, extending south along 76W between 19N-11N. Once again, this wave is in a strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated with it at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N21W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to 05N27W and continues west of a tropical wave near 05N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 06N-02N between 30W-36W. Isolated convection is also seen near the ITCZ and the Brazilian coast from 02N-01S and west of 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture west of 93W along with upper-level divergence is fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the Gulf, mainly west of 92W. The strongest convection is currently over the southeast and middle Texas coast. However, ongoing convective activity is also in the northwestern Gulf with lightning associated with it and gusts up to 29 kts according to buoys in the area. These thunderstorms are mostly from 30N-27N between 93W- 97W. Meanwhile, strong convection is underway across the central Bay of Campeche, from 21N-18N between 93W-96W. Upper level ridging over the central and eastern Gulf along with surface ridging from a 1017 mb high pressure near 28N84W continues to keep the eastern Gulf quiet with fair conditions. Light variable winds are seen in the central and eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are seen. Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will produce heavy rainfall across the western and central Gulf coasts in addition to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few days. See the Weather Prediction Center and local NWS forecast offices for more information on this. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SE winds associated with a trough inland over Mexico will persist over NW Gulf through tonight. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected elsewhere through Thursday. A ridge will build eastward over the Gulf Thursday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends south to the northeast Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture with upper level divergence and fueling scattered showers across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Upper level ridging is bringing strong subsidence over the western Caribbean and keeping conditions fair, with some isolated thunderstorms passing through the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough continues to be draped across Panama, fueling strong convection-- some of which is entering adjacent waters mostly south of 11N between 76W- 83W. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle trades in the western basin. Moderate to fresh trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the south-central Caribbean through Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough lingers north of Puerto Rico from 27N65W to 20N66W. Along with this trough, an upper-level disturbance is digging southward across the western Atlantic. This is giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms from 31N-22N between 61W- 68W. Another area of convection in the central Atlantic is seen from 23N-21N between 57W-63W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin from the 1031 mb Azores high near 39N36W and keeping conditions fair. The inverted trough north of Puerto Rico will remain until Saturday. Tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR