000 AXNT20 KNHC 050555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, seen along 26W from 09N southward and moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen with this feature 06N-00N between 25W-28W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, seen along 46W from 13N-02N moving west around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are developing near this wave from 07N-06N between 44W-49W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending south along 64W from 13N-04N moving west around 15-20 kt. The portion of the wave over the SE Caribbean is in a strong wind shear environment. However, shallow moisture is supporting isolated showers across the Windward Islands. A tropical wave is entering the western Caribbean, extending south along 76W between 20N-08N. Once again, this wave is in a strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated with it at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 04N29W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 08N-06N between 21W-13W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 06N-02N between 30W-34W. Isolated convection is also seen near the ITCZ and the Brazilian coast from 02N-00N and near 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer moisture west of 91W along with upper-level divergence is fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the Gulf, mainly west of 89W. The broad low is now a trough over eastern Mexico and is fueling the convective activity over this area. Otherwise, upper level ridging over the central and eastern Gulf along with surface ridging continue to keep the eastern Gulf quiet with fair conditions. Light variable winds are seen in the central and eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are seen with fresh winds to the north of the Yucatan. The surface trough in eastern Mexico is expected to drift west farther inland. However, the moisture associated with this feature will produce heavy rainfall across the western and central Gulf coasts in addition to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. See the Weather Prediction Center and local NWS forecast offices for more information on this. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SE winds will persist over NW Gulf through Wednesday night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate ESE winds through Wednesday night. A new surface ridge will build over entire Gulf by Thursday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends south to the northeast Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture with upper level divergence and fueling scattered showers across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Thunderstorms fueled by sea breeze convergence along Cuba and Hispaniola are entering the Caribbean, albeit weakening at this time. Otherwise, upper level ridging is bringing strong subsidence over the western Caribbean and keeping conditions fair. The monsoon trough continues to be draped across Panama, fueling strong convection--some of which is entering adjacent waters mostly south of 11N between 80W-82W. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle trades in the western basin. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh trades in the Gulf of Honduras with some strong winds south of 16N between 85W- 86W. A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras and elsewhere over the south central Caribbean tonight through Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent flow between a middle level ridge centered near the Yucatan Channel and a trough along the western Atlantic support a surface trough north of Puerto Rico from 27N63W to 20N65W. Low level precipitable water imagery show abundant moisture associated with this trough, which is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms from 25N-21N between 56W-66W. A mid-level trough digging across the western Atlantic is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms from 31N-28N between 60W-68W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin from the 1033 mb Azores high near 39N36W and keeping conditions fair. The weak inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area until Friday. The trough will weaken the 28N ridge. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR